運輸エネルギー転換開発シナリオ計画2060：インドネシアのケーススタディ
Transportation energy transition development scenario planning 2060: Case study of Indonesia (原題)
Muhammad Bagaskara Suryo, Dzikri Firmansyah Hakam
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
インドネシアの道路交通部門を対象に、LEAPモデルで2024〜2060年のエネルギー消費・燃料構成・CO₂排出・インフラ投資を4シナリオで予測。BAUとAETはネットゼロに不整合で、NZTは2060年に85%削減、BPは96%削減を達成。ZEV販売義務化や充電・水素インフラの前倒し投資、電力部門の脱炭素が不可欠と結論。
English
Using a LEAP model, this study projects Indonesia's road transport energy, fuel mix, CO2 emissions, and infrastructure investment to 2060 under four scenarios. BAU and AET fail net-zero alignment, while NZT cuts emissions 85% and BP 96% versus BAU. It concludes that legislated ZEV mandates, front-loaded charging/hydrogen investment, and power-sector decarbonization are essential.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
新興国・アジアの運輸脱炭素シナリオは、日本企業のEV・水素関連インフラ輸出やGX投資判断に示唆を与える。SSBJ・有報でのScope3対応や移行計画策定の参考にもなる。
In the global GX context
Provides a developing-economy transport decarbonization pathway aligned with national policy, useful for global comparisons under ISSB/TCFD transition planning and for investors assessing emerging-market transition risk.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:LEAPモデルを用いた運輸部門の長期シナリオ分析手法と政策感度の知見を提供。
🏢実務担当者:インドネシア市場でのEV・水素インフラ投資やZEV義務化に伴う事業機会とリスクを評価する材料。
🏛政策担当者:ZEV販売義務やインフラ前倒し投資、電力脱炭素の同時推進がネットゼロ達成に不可欠であることを示唆。
📄 Abstract（原文）
Indonesia's road transportation sector accounts for 36.11% of total national energy consumption and emitted approximately 160 Mt of CO₂ in 2023 yet remains almost entirely dependent on fossil fuels. This study develops a LEAP-based energy shift model to project Indonesia's road transport energy consumption, fuel mix, CO₂ emissions, and infrastructure investment across four scenarios from 2024 to 2060, grounded in the newly enacted National Energy Policy KEN PP No. 40/2025. The four scenarios are Business-as-Usual (BAU), Accelerated Energy Transition (AET), Net Zero Transport (NZT), and Best Practice (BP). Modal energy shares are anchored to ICCT's 2023 base-year splits, and baseline total energy follows the KEN 2025 lower trajectory, peaking at 78.30 MTOE in 2030 before declining to 58.23 MTOE by 2060. Results show that BAU and AET fall short of net-zero alignment, with 2060 emissions of 101.66 MMT and 57.68 MMT respectively and fossil fuel shares remain at 58.25% and 33.00%. NZT achieves 15.22 MMT by 2060, an 85.0% reduction versus BAU, with zero-emission fuels covering 87.43% of total road transport energy. BP reaches 4.04 MMT at a 96.0% reduction, with zero-emission fuels at 96.28% and total energy declining to 30 MTOE. Cumulative CO₂ savings relative to BAU reach 2,518.71 MMT under NZT and 3,412.95 MMT under BP. Infrastructure investment for NZT and BP amounts to USD 273.75 billion and USD 265.18 billion respectively, with BP falling below NZT after 2053 due to earlier infrastructure saturation. The findings confirm that NZT and BP are the only viable pathways for NZE 2060 alignment, and that achieving either requires legislated ZEV sales mandates toward 100% by 2045, front-loaded charging and hydrogen refueling investment, and coordinated power sector decarbonization.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.team.2026.09.002first seen 2026-09-26 04:38:55
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