EU CBAMに対するウズベキスタン輸出の曝露と経済安全保障管理
EU CBAM EXPOSURE OF UZBEKISTAN'S EXPORTS AND ECONOMIC SECURITY MANAGEMENT (原題)
Yakubov, Dilshod Kamildjanovich, Dalmuradova, Nargiza Nurillaevna
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
EUのCBAM確定段階入りを受け、ウズベキスタンの対EU輸出に占めるCBAM対象品の割合を推計した研究。対象品はEU輸入の21.6%を占め、その9割超が窒素系・複合肥料。EU ETS価格と無償割当段階的廃止を踏まえた3シナリオで証明書支払額を試算し、硝酸アンモニウムは2026年の5.0ユーロ/トンから2034年に199.8ユーロ/トンへ、尿素は価格の40.8%相当に達すると示す。検証済み排出データの活用で負担軽減が可能と論じる。
English
Assesses Uzbekistan's exposure to the EU CBAM, which entered its definitive phase in 2026. CBAM-covered goods make up 21.6% of EU imports from Uzbekistan, 90.4% of it fertilizers. Using EU default emission values, free-allocation phase-out and EU ETS prices, certificate payments are modeled across three scenarios: ammonium nitrate rises from EUR 5.0/t in 2026 to EUR 199.8/t by 2034, and urea payments equal 40.8% of its price. Verified emissions data could reduce the burden.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
CBAMは日本企業の輸出・調達にも波及する制度であり、非炭素価格国からの輸出曝露を定量化する本手法は、日本の輸出産業やSSBJ開示におけるScope 3・炭素コスト試算の参考になる。
In the global GX context
Adds empirical evidence on CBAM's distributional burden for exporters in countries without carbon pricing, informing the global debate on CBAM's trade impact and the value of verified emissions data under MRV and ISSB-aligned disclosure.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:CBAM証明書コストのシナリオ推計手法と、Eurostat/UN Comtrade突合による曝露測定の実例を提供する。
🏢実務担当者:非炭素価格国からの輸出企業が、検証済み排出データ整備でCBAM負担を軽減できることを示す。
🏛政策担当者:炭素価格制度を持たない輸出国が、CBAM対応と経済安全保障の観点でMRV整備を優先すべき根拠となる。
📄 Abstract（原文）
The European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which entered into its definitive phase on January 1, 2026, creates a new external risk for exporters from countries without carbon pricing systems. This paper assesses the extent to which Uzbekistan's exports are exposed to CBAM and its implications for economic security management. Trade data for 2025, cross-validated through a comparison of Eurostat and UN Comtrade statistics (with a discrepancy of less than 0.3%), indicate that CBAM-covered goods account for 21.6% of the European Union's imports from Uzbekistan, with nitrogenous and compound fertilizers representing 90.4% of this volume. CBAM certificate payments per tonne of product were calculated under three carbon price scenarios based on the European Commission's default emission values, the schedule for the gradual phase-out of free allowances, and EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) prices. Under the moderate scenario, the payment for ammonium nitrate amounts to EUR 5.0 per tonne in 2026 and rises to EUR 199.8 per tonne by 2034; for urea, the payment is equivalent to 40.8% of its price. Comparison with models developed by the European Central Bank, the World Bank, and the Asian Development Bank confirms this risk structure and indicates that part of the burden can be reduced through verified emissions data. Measures to improve the management mechanism are proposed.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- Zenodo https://zenodo.org/records/24140427first seen 2026-11-12 04:11:54 · last seen 2026-11-14 04:13:31
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