異時点間取引は発展段階の異なる炭素市場にどのような影響を与えるか？経済全体分析
What impacts can intertemporal trading have on carbon markets across different development stages? An economy-wide analysis (原題)
Shuxin Zhang, Hong-Dian Jiang, Songyang Yan, Pallav Purohit, Yun-Fei Yao, Qiao‐Mei Liang
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、異時点間取引（バンキング・ボローイング）が炭素市場に与える影響を、動学的CGEモデルと炭素市場モジュールを用いて分析する。総枠、部門カバレッジ、割当方法、異時点間取引のシナリオを比較し、後期削減重視・部門拡大が急速・高オークション率の市場で特に有効と示す。導入により長期炭素価格が低下し、累積GDPと家計厚生が改善する一方、対象部門の産出は初期に縮小し後に回復する。
English
This study uses a dynamic CGE model with a carbon market module to assess how intertemporal trading (banking/borrowing) affects carbon markets under different designs. Comparing scenarios on caps, sectoral coverage, allocation, and intertemporal trading, it finds the mechanism is most beneficial in markets prioritizing later-stage abatement, rapid coverage expansion, or high auction rates. It lowers long-term carbon prices while raising cumulative GDP and household welfare, though covered sectors contract initially before recovering.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本ではGX-ETSや炭素価格制度の設計が進む中、異時点間取引の導入是非は価格安定性と投資予見性に直結する。本論文は市場発展段階に応じた制度設計の条件を示し、日本制度設計への示唆が大きい。
In the global GX context
As carbon markets mature globally under Article 6 and CBAM, intertemporal trading design is central to price stability and investment certainty. This paper offers a framework for sequencing market mechanisms by development stage, relevant to emerging ETS designs worldwide.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:動学的CGEで異時点間取引の条件付き有効性を定量化した点が参考になる。
🏢実務担当者:自社が対象となる炭素市場の制度設計次第で、初期のコスト増と後期の緩和を織り込んだ長期計画が必要。
🏛政策担当者:炭素市場の段階に応じた異時点間取引の導入判断と、価格安定・厚生改善の条件を政策設計に反映すべき。
📄 Abstract（原文）
Carbon markets have encountered challenges such as limited flexibility and substantial price volatility. Intertemporal trading mechanisms, as one of the important ways of green finance, have been proposed as a potential solution to improve market efficiency. However, existing studies frequently overlook whether the intricate internal mechanisms of carbon markets are suitable for introducing intertemporal trading. To comprehensively analyze the effect of intertemporal trading, this study employs a computable general equilibrium model incorporating an intertemporal dynamic mechanism and a carbon market module. This study designs scenarios focusing on total quotas, sectoral coverage, quota allocation, and intertemporal trading to simulate and compare their macroeconomic impacts. The results suggest that intertemporal trading is particularly beneficial in carbon markets that prioritize later-stage reduction, experience rapid sectoral coverage, or have a high auction rate. Under these conditions, introducing intertemporal trading can help reduce long-term carbon prices while promoting the development of cumulative GDP and household welfare. It is noted that the output of sectors covered by the carbon market undergoes an initial contraction in the early stage, followed by a gradual increase in the later stage.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2026.108755first seen 2026-09-27 04:39:22
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