中国の低炭素移行における炭素価格ショックと電力・成長レジリエンス：生産ネットワークからの証拠

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:炭素価格の間接的・ネットワーク的影響を定量化する手法として、移行リスク研究に有用。

🏢実務担当者:サプライチェーン経由の炭素コスト伝播を理解し、調達・電力調達戦略のリスク評価に活用できる。

🏛政策担当者:炭素市場と電力市場の政策協調設計、特にコスト伝播緩和策の検討に示唆を与える。

Carbon pricing is a cornerstone of climate change mitigation; yet, the cost shocks it creates may destabilize the electricity demand and complicate the low–carbon transition. This paper examines how carbon price shocks propagate through production networks and affect electricity–growth resilience at the region–industry level in China. Carbon price shocks can travel through production networks and destabilize the electricity demand, making it important to understand how these shocks affect the resistance and recovery of electricity–consumption growth. Using monthly electricity–consumption data for 26 provinces from January 2023 to July 2025, we construct an electricity–growth resilience index that captures both dimensions. We combine carbon–market prices with a multi–regional input–output framework to measure the network–based exposure to carbon price shocks. The estimates show that network–transmitted carbon price shocks are associated with lower electricity–growth resilience and that the network channel is more important than direct local exposure after absorbing region–month and industry–month shocks. The association is weaker in industries with a stronger self–generation capacity and in regions with a higher clean–generation share, but stronger in electricity–surplus regions, regulated industries, electricity–dependent industries, and highly energy–intensive industries. Quantitatively, a one–unit increase in the network–based carbon price shock is associated with a 4.612–point reduction in the composite resilience index; the corresponding instrumental–variable estimate is −3.160. The forward– and backward–transmission coefficients are −4.672 and 3.986, respectively. These findings are relevant to the coordinated design of carbon–market and electricity–system policies. More broadly, the results suggest that expanding clean electricity generation and managing the cost transmission along production networks can help buffer transition costs, supporting an orderly low–carbon transition consistent with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including SDG 7 (affordable and clean energy) and SDG 13 (climate action).

• openalex https://doi.org/10.3390/su18189682first seen 2026-09-24 04:40:19