Impact of Net Zero Emission 2060 Initiatives to the Commercial Electric Vehicle Adoption in Indonesia: A System Dynamic Model Approach
インドネシアにおけるネットゼロエミッション2060イニシアチブが商用電気自動車導入に与える影響：システムダイナミクスモデルアプローチ (AI 翻訳)
Abdu Robbi
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
インドネシアの2060年ネットゼロ目標に向け、商用電気バス導入に及ぼす政府政策の影響をシステムダイナミクスで分析。17の政策シナリオを評価し、燃料価格改革が最も効果的で、VAT優遇と電力料金が補完的役割を果たすことを示した。最良シナリオでは2060年に市場飽和の13万2千台に達し、CO2排出を約8,785Gg削減、国内製造能力も拡大する。
English
This study uses System Dynamics to analyze the impact of government policies on commercial electric bus adoption in Indonesia towards the 2060 net-zero target. Evaluating 17 policy scenarios, it finds fuel price reform is the most effective instrument, complemented by VAT incentives and electricity tariffs. The best scenario achieves market saturation of 132,000 buses by 2060, reducing CO2 emissions by about 8,785 Gg and expanding domestic manufacturing capacity.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本の商用EV普及政策（補助金・税制優遇）や、アジア新興国への技術輸出・インフラ協力の可能性に示唆を与える。日本のEV関連企業にとって、インドネシア市場の政策感応度を理解する上で有用。
In the global GX context
Provides empirical evidence on policy effectiveness for EV adoption in an emerging economy, relevant to global discussions on transport decarbonization and NDC implementation. Offers insights for countries designing fiscal and fuel price policies to accelerate EV transitions.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:政策シナリオの定量比較手法と、燃料価格改革の重要性に関する知見。
🏢実務担当者:商用EV市場参入や投資判断における政策リスクと機会の理解。
🏛政策担当者:効果的なEV普及政策の設計（燃料価格改革と税制優遇の組み合わせ）に関するエビデンス。
📄 Abstract（原文）
Indonesia has committed to achieving Net Zero Emissions (NZE) by 2060, with transport electrification identified as one of the key mitigation strategies. This study investigates the impact of government policies on commercial electric vehicle adoption, particularly electric buses, in Indonesia using a System Dynamics approach. A simulation model was developed in Vensim® PLE 10.3.1 based on Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) and Stock-and-Flow Diagrams (SFDs) to evaluate 17 policy scenarios over the 2026–2060 period. The scenarios represent combinations of value-added tax (VAT) incentives, fuel price reforms, and electricity tariff policies under Indonesia’s Enhanced Nationally Determined Contribution (ENDC). The findings indicate that, under business-as-usual conditions, commercial electric bus adoption remains limited, reaching only approximately 8,925 units by 2060. The Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) is identified as the primary determinant of adoption, with fuel prices exerting the strongest influence on market competitiveness. Among the evaluated scenarios, the combination of a 10% VAT incentive and fuel subsidy removal produces the best outcome, enabling the market to reach the projected saturation level of 132,000 electric buses while expanding domestic manufacturing capacity to more than 20,500 units annually. This scenario is also projected to reduce approximately 8,785 Gg CO₂ emissions in 2060, contributing 18–22% of the annual emissions reduction target under Indonesia’s Second Nationally Determined Contribution (SNDC). The results highlight that fuel price reform is the most effective policy instrument, while VAT incentives and affordable electricity tariffs play complementary roles in accelerating commercial electric vehicle adoption.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- crossref https://doi.org/10.59188/eduvest.v6i8.53385first seen 2026-08-09 06:06:39
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