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インド炭素クレジット取引制度への市場反応：炭素排出集約型産業からのセクター別エビデンス

Market Responses to India’s Carbon Credit Trading Scheme: Sectoral Evidence from Carbon Emission Intensive Industries (原題)

Hrishikesh Upadhyaya

Natural Resources for Human Health📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-09-05#炭素価格経営インパクト: 資金調達対象セクター: manufacturing
DOI: 10.53365/nrfhh.2244
原典: https://doi.org/10.53365/nrfhh.2244

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本論文は、2023年6月28日に発表されたインドの炭素クレジット取引制度（CCTS）に対する株式市場の反応を、アルミニウム・塩化アルカリ・パルプ紙・繊維の4炭素集約セクター、上場18社を対象にイベントスタディで分析した。CCTS発表は累積的に有意な負の市場反応を伴い、発表翌日に大きな負の異常リターンが観測された。セクター別ではアルミニウムとパルプ紙で有意な負のCAARが確認された一方、塩化アルカリと繊維は負だが統計的に弱かった。

English

This study examines stock-market reactions to India's Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS) announcement on 28 June 2023 across four carbon-intensive sectors (aluminium, chlor-alkali, pulp & paper, textile) using an event study of 18 listed firms. The CCTS announcement produced a significantly negative cumulative market reaction, with a large negative abnormal return the day after. Sector responses varied: aluminium and pulp & paper showed significant negative CAARs, while chlor-alkali and textile were negative but weaker.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本ではSSBJ基準やGX-ETS、カーボンプライシング議論が進む中、排出集約産業への規制発表が株式市場に与える影響を実証した本論文は、日本企業の移行リスク評価や投資家対応の参考になる。特にセクター別の市場反応の差は、日本版炭素価格制度設計における業種別影響の示唆を提供する。

In the global GX context

As global carbon pricing expands under Article 6 and ISSB/CSRD disclosure, this paper offers rare empirical evidence on how emerging-market carbon trading scheme announcements are priced by equity markets. It adds sectoral granularity to transition-risk scholarship, relevant to investors assessing policy-driven repricing in carbon-intensive industries.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:新興国炭素市場制度の導入が株式市場に与える影響をセクター別に実証した点が、移行リスク研究に有用。

🏢実務担当者:炭素集約型事業を抱える企業は、制度発表時の市場評価変動を踏まえ、投資家向けの移行計画開示を強化すべき。

🏛政策担当者:炭素価格制度の設計・発表が業種別に異なる市場影響を生む点を考慮し、段階的導入や業界対話が重要。

📄 Abstract（原文）

This study analyses the stock-market reaction to the announcement of India’s Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS) on 28 June 2023. The study covers four carbon intensive sectors under the scheme namely, Aluminium, Chlor-alkali, Pulp and Paper and Textile. A sample of 18 listed companies was taken from these sectors using an event study methodology. The market benchmark used is the BSE 500 Index. The estimation period is 120 trading days and event window is of 21 trading days (from t-10 to t+10). To measure the market reaction around the announcement, we examine Average Abnormal Returns (AARs) and Cumulative Average Abnormal Returns (CAARs). Further evidence is provided by additional paired t-tests, Wilcoxon Signed-Rank tests, Corrado rank tests and modified Corrado tests. The results show that the CCTS announcement was associated with a negative cumulative market reaction. The AAR was negative but statistically insignificant on the announcement day while the CAAR was significantly negative and remained below zero during the post-announcement period. The first trading day after the announcement showed a large negative AAR and the cumulative effect was statistically significant even at the end of the event window. The sector-wise results show that the response was not uniform in the four sectors. Aluminium and Pulp and Paper exhibited significant negative CAARs in selected event windows whereas the results for Chlor-alkali and Textile were negative but weaker in statistical terms. The additional tests provide mixed evidence on the strength of the response. The results indicate that investors responded negatively to the announcement of the CCTS, but the magnitude and statistical significance of the reaction varied across sectors.

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