Old petrol in new bottles? The geopolitical implications of the energy transition in the Middle East and North Africa
古い石油が新しい瓶に？中東・北アフリカにおけるエネルギー移行の地政学的含意 (AI 翻訳)
Emre Hatipoglu, Muhammad Mohsin Hussain
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
中東・北アフリカ（MENA）は化石燃料からの移行後も世界のエネルギー安全保障の中心であり続ける。本研究は、太陽光照射、送電網、技術輸入、2018～2024年の850件のエネルギー関連事象を組み合わせ、エネルギー安全保障の4側面（可用性、アクセス性、手頃さ、受容性）にわたるリスクを分析。資源が豊富でも設備容量に均等に反映されず、紛争や送電網の脆弱性がアクセス性を低下させ、技術輸入の集中が保守運用を外部依存に晒すことを示す。再生可能エネルギー関連の抗議はイデオロギーではなく土地や電力アクセスなど地域社会の経済問題に起因する。
English
This study examines the geopolitical implications of the energy transition in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), combining data on solar irradiation, grid infrastructure, technology imports, and 850 energy-related events (2018-2024). It finds that abundant renewable resources do not translate evenly into installed capacity, and that conflict exposure and weak grid connectivity reduce energy accessibility. Concentrated import patterns create vulnerabilities in technology maintenance, while renewable-related protests focus on local socioeconomic grievances rather than ideological opposition. The transition shifts geopolitical risk toward infrastructure security, supply chains, and distributional conflicts.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本はエネルギー輸入依存度が高く、MENA地域の安定は日本のエネルギー安全保障に直結する。本論文は、再生可能エネルギー移行が地政学リスクを消すのではなく、その性質を変えることを示し、日本のエネルギー政策や海外投資判断に示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This paper contributes to global understanding of how the energy transition reshapes geopolitical risks, moving beyond hydrocarbon dependence to infrastructure and supply-chain vulnerabilities. It offers a framework applicable to other regions and informs international energy security debates.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a multi-dimensional framework for analyzing energy security in transition contexts, combining spatial and event data.
🏢実務担当者:Highlights supply-chain and infrastructure risks that companies should consider when investing in MENA renewable projects.
🏛政策担当者:Emphasizes the need for diversified technology imports and grid resilience to mitigate transition-related geopolitical risks.
📄 Abstract（原文）
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) will remain central to global energy security even as the world moves away from fossil fuels. The region combines major hydrocarbon exports and exceptional renewable potential, yet faces persistent armed conflict, uneven infrastructure, and dependence on imported technology. Research rarely examines these risks together across the four dimensions of energy security: availability, accessibility, affordability, and acceptability. We address this gap by combining data on solar irradiation, capacity, electricity transmission networks, technology imports and 850 energy-related events (2018–2024). Using descriptive spatial mapping, we identify where resources and infrastructure overlap with conflict and public contestation. Findings show that abundant resources do not translate evenly into installed capacity. Conflict exposure and weak grid connectivity coincide with lower energy accessibility, while concentrated import patterns leave technology operation and maintenance vulnerable to a few external suppliers. Among 15 renewable-specific protest events, grievances focus on local socioeconomic issues, such as land use and power access rather than ideological opposition. The transition therefore does not remove energy geopolitics from the region. Instead, it shifts risk toward infrastructure security, technology supply chains, and localized distributional conflict.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2026.104884first seen 2026-08-17 04:53:45
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