システムダイナミクスに基づく建築体炭素排出の影響要因

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:Offers a system dynamics framework for analyzing building embodied carbon that can be adapted to different policy contexts.

🏢実務担当者:Provides insights on how building height, seismic design, and prefabrication rate affect carbon emissions, useful for design and procurement decisions.

🏛政策担当者:Demonstrates how carbon pricing and quotas can shift market demand toward low-carbon materials, supporting policy design for building decarbonization.

「ダブルカーボン」目標の達成に向けて、建設部門の体化炭素の管理と制御は極めて重要であり、これは炭素排出の重要な分野である。本研究は、建築構造設計、施工・調達、建築材料の生産・取引の全プロセスに焦点を当てる。システムダイナミクスの原理に基づき、建築構造設計、生産、建築材料市場の3つのサブシステムからなる建築体化炭素分析モデルを構築する。各サブシステムの核心要素とそれらの相互作用関係を明確にし、モデルの変数とパラメータを定義する。マルチシナリオシミュレーション分析を通じて、異なる建築高さ、地震影響係数、期待プロジェクトコスト、炭素削減政策などの主要因子が建築体化炭素に及ぼす影響メカニズムを探求する。結果は、建築高さと地震影響係数が建築構造設計段階における材料消費に有意な影響を及ぼし、建築高さがより顕著な駆動効果を発揮すること、プレハブ率の向上が施工効率を改善し、工期を短縮し、施工炭素排出を削減すると同時に、現在の労働コスト上昇の圧力を均衡させることができること、そして炭素削減政策が市場需要を導き、低炭素建築材料メーカーに研究開発投資と生産能力の拡大を促し、「需要成長—コスト削減—市場拡大」の好循環を形成することを示す。対照的に、従来の建築材料は炭素割当量の引き締めと炭素価格の上昇の影響を受け、市場シェアの継続的な縮小と市場からの段階的撤退を招き、最終的に業界全体の炭素削減を実現する。本研究で構築したシステムダイナミクスモデルは、建築体化炭素の全プロセス管理と制御に科学的な分析枠組みを提供し、主要な影響因子と進化法則を明らかにし、建築体化炭素の精密な管理と制御および炭素削減経路の策定に理論的支援と実践的参考を提供する。

AI 翻訳（deepseek-v4-flash）。 正確を期す場合は下の原文を参照してください。

To achieve the “dual carbon” goals, the management and control of the construction sector’s embodied carbon is crucial, as it is a key field of carbon emissions. This study focuses on the entire process of building structural design, construction and procurement, and building material production and trading. Based on the principles of system dynamics, it constructs a building embodied carbon analysis model consisting of three subsystems: building structural design, production, and building material market. The core elements of each subsystem and their interaction relationships are clarified, and the model variables and parameters are defined. Through multi-scenario simulation analysis, the influence mechanisms of key factors such as different building heights, seismic influence coefficients, expected project costs, and carbon reduction policies on building embodied carbon are explored. The results show that building height and seismic influence coefficients have significant impacts on material consumption during the building structural design stage, with building height exerting a more prominent driving effect; increasing the prefabrication rate can improve construction efficiency, shorten the construction period, reduce construction carbon emissions, and simultaneously balance the current pressure of rising labor costs; and carbon reduction policies guide market demand, prompting low-carbon building material manufacturers to expand R&D investment and production capacity, forming a positive cycle of “demand growth—cost reduction—market expansion”. In contrast, conventional building materials are affected by tightened carbon quotas and rising carbon prices, leading to a continuous shrinkage of their market share and gradual withdrawal from the market, ultimately realizing overall carbon reduction in the industry. The system dynamics model constructed in this study provides a scientific analysis framework for the full-process management and control of building embodied carbon, reveals the key influencing factors and evolution laws, and offers theoretical support and practical reference for the precise management and control of building embodied carbon and the formulation of carbon reduction pathways.

• semanticscholar https://www.mdpi.com/2075-5309/16/5/983/pdffirst seen 2026-05-15 17:10:18 · last seen 2026-09-29 05:14:06