インドの運輸電動化におけるリチウム制約：ネットゼロ移行へのシステムレベル影響と政策含意

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:統合評価モデルに資源制約を組み込む手法と、制約下での技術代替・シャドウプライスの挙動を学べる。

🏢実務担当者:リチウム調達リスクが自社の電動化戦略やサプライチェーンに与える影響を定量的に把握する材料となる。

🏛政策担当者:重要鉱物の供給制約をエネルギー計画に明示的に統合する必要性と、政策介入のタイミングを示唆する。

Energy transition pathways have largely treated critical minerals as unconstrained for the deployment of low-carbon energy technologies. This paper challenges this assumption for India, the third-largest energy consumer globally and a major importer of battery-grade minerals, by incorporating lithium supply limitations within an integrated energy-system framework and quantifying the consequences on technology choices, electrification, and transition costs. This study assesses the feasibility of decarbonization pathways using the long-term energy-system models from a critical minerals availability constraints perspective. Using the KINESYS-TIMES model, seventeen scenarios combine three lithium-intensity sensitivities (kg of lithium per kWh of installed battery capacity) with four availability cases (30%, 60% and 90% of unconstrained net-zero requirements, and unconstrained), two dynamic recycling variants, and three runs under an Accelerated Policies scenario of intermediate ambition. The availability is enforced within the optimization; hence the substitutability comes from cost minimization, not from post hoc accounting, and the marginal value of the constraint becomes apparent. Lithium retained in the operational fleet grows twentyfold between 2030 and 2070 from 36.8 to 728.4 kt/yr with post-2040 being the risk period. Under severe constraint, within the fixed lithium-ion technology set modelled, the system reconfigures rather than fails; electrification is throttled back, hydrogen and biofuels expand, and hybrids re-enter endogenously. Recycling contributes little prior to 2045 but increases availability to 452 from 218 kt/year by 2070. The shadow price of the constraint is zero until the cap hits and then increases convexly, in the ratio 1.00: 2.79: 7.94 in 2070 for the three caps, and chemistry innovation delays the cap hit by fifteen years. Under the intermediate ambition, the binding cap is satisfied by 67.9% fossil fuels versus 10.6% under net-zero. These results establish material feasibility as a structurally distinct dimension of India’s net-zero pathway requiring explicit integration into energy planning alongside emissions and energy security.

• semanticscholar https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aeb03a/pdffirst seen 2026-10-08 05:21:17 · last seen 2026-10-09 05:14:08