Endogenous Modal Shift and Technology Change in Spanish Passenger Transport: A System Dynamics Scenario Analysis to 2050
スペイン旅客輸送における内生的モーダルシフトと技術変化：2050年までのシステムダイナミクスシナリオ分析 (AI 翻訳)
David Álvarez-Antelo, Luis Miguel
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
スペインの旅客輸送部門の脱炭素化を、システムダイナミクスモデルを用いて分析。モーダルシフトを内生化し、4つのシナリオを2050年まで評価。電化だけでは不十分で、需要削減が深い脱炭素化に不可欠と示す。
English
This study uses a system dynamics model to analyze decarbonization of Spanish passenger transport, endogenizing modal shift. Evaluating four scenarios to 2050, it finds that electrification alone is insufficient; demand reduction is crucial for deep decarbonization.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本の運輸部門の脱炭素化政策（次世代自動車戦略、モーダルシフト推進）に示唆を与える。需要側対策の重要性を定量的に示しており、日本のエネルギー基本計画や温暖化対策計画の策定に参考となる。
In the global GX context
This paper contributes to global transport decarbonization scholarship by demonstrating that technological fixes alone are insufficient, highlighting the need for demand-side measures. It offers a modeling approach applicable to other countries' transport climate policies.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a novel system dynamics model with endogenous modal shift, useful for transport decarbonization scenario analysis.
🏢実務担当者:Highlights the importance of demand-side measures for corporate transport decarbonization strategies.
🏛政策担当者:Informs transport climate policy design by showing that electrification must be complemented by demand reduction policies.
📄 Abstract（原文）
The decarbonization of passenger transport remains one of the most challenging sectors for climate policy, as supply-side technological solutions alone are insufficient to meet stringent climate targets. This paper presents an extended system dynamics model of the Spanish passenger transport sector, built on the WILIAM integrated assessment framework, that for the first time endogenizes modal shift, allowing transport mode shares to emerge from the interaction of policy instruments, price signals, and infrastructure provision. Four scenarios are evaluated to 2050: a Baseline, a scenario calibrated to the Spanish National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan (GG-PNIEC), a more ambitious electrification and modal-shift scenario (GG+), and a Decent Living Standards scenario (DLS) combining technological change with deep demand reduction. Relative to 2023, direct CO2 emissions in 2050 fall by 64% under GG-PNIEC, 75% under GG+, and 84% under DLS. While GG-PNIEC and GG+ deliver substantial reductions through electrification, only DLS approaches deep decarbonization, combining rapid electrification with a reduction of over 55% in light-duty vehicle travel demand relative to the Baseline. These results indicate that technological substitution alone is insufficient, and that sufficiency-oriented demand reduction is decisive for reaching the deepest emission cuts in passenger transport.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.3390/futuretransp6040157first seen 2026-08-16 04:49:29
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