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From the Scarcity to the Abundance System: Solar Energy, Automation, and the Self-Domestication of Humankind as Drivers of a Transition to a Post-Capitalist Post-Scarcity Society

希少性から豊かさのシステムへ：太陽エネルギー、自動化、人類の自己家畜化がポスト資本主義・ポスト希少性社会への移行を促進する (AI 翻訳)

Jan Zelenák

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)プレプリント2026-07-28#エネルギー転換
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.21627611
原典: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21627611

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本ワーキングペーパーは、太陽光発電の学習曲線とAI・自動化による限界費用の低下を基に、希少性システムから豊かさシステムへの社会移行を予測する統合モデルを提示。人口爆発や暴力などの脅威は自己限定的とし、地球の限界、AI制御、地政学的正義を条件に、80〜120年で技術的移行が決まると論じる。行動枠組みとして5原則と17ステップを提案。

English

This working paper presents an integrated forecasting model for societal transition from scarcity to abundance, based on solar learning curves and AI-driven marginal cost declines. It argues that threats like population explosion and violence are self-limiting, and that technical transition is determined over 80-120 years, with distribution as the open normative question. Proposes a framework of 5 principles and 17 steps.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本のGX政策は現実的なエネルギー移行に焦点を当てており、本稿の長期的・規範的ビジョンは直接的な政策示唆は限定的。ただし、再生可能エネルギーとAIの社会変革力を考察する上で、日本の読者に思考の枠組みを提供する。

In the global GX context

Globally, this paper contributes to debates on post-growth and energy transition, but lacks empirical rigor and policy specificity. It may interest scholars of long-term societal change, but offers limited actionable insights for current disclosure or transition finance frameworks.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:A speculative framework for long-term energy and societal transition, useful for theoretical discussions.

🏛政策担当者:May inspire long-term visioning but lacks concrete policy mechanisms.

📄 Abstract（原文）

This working paper develops an integrated forecasting model for the transition of human societies from a scarcity system to an positive abundance system. Its starting point is that solar electricity follows a stable learning curve and is already the cheapest form of power generation. From near-zero-cost energy the paper derives - via automation, AI and closed material cycles - a decline of the marginal costs of key goods towards zero, so that money loses its function as the manager of scarcity. Three dynamics commonly read as threats are shown to be self-limiting: superfluous positional consumption, the population explosion (via the demographic transition), and interpersonal violence (primarily as a cultural civilising process; a genetic self-domestication component is treated as an uncertain, subordinate supplement). The favourable dynamics hold only within three boundary conditions - planetary boundaries, control over the orchestrating AI, and geopolitical justice between world regions - and raise inner questions of meaning, justice and macroeconomic stability. The technical transition appears largely determined over 80-120 years; what remains open and normative is solely its distribution - peaceful or contested. The paper closes with a framework for action (five guiding principles and 17 sequenced steps for global organizations, states and communities). A German-language version is included in this record.

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gxceed は公開メタデータに基づく研究支援データセットです。要約・翻訳・解説は AI 支援で生成されています。 最終的な解釈・検証は利用者が原典資料に基づいて行うことを前提とします。