Spatiotemporal Analysis of Methane Emissions and Mitigation Potential in China: A Scenario-Based Study Using the Greenhouse Gas—Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies—Methane Framework

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🔬研究者:Provides a comprehensive, bottom-up methane emission inventory and scenario analysis for China, offering a methodological template for other countries.

🏢実務担当者:Identifies specific mitigation technologies (e.g., VAM oxidation, anaerobic digestion) and their regional applicability, relevant for energy and waste companies.

🏛政策担当者:Quantifies the maximum technically feasible reduction potential, informing national and subnational climate targets and sectoral policies.

本研究估算了2020年中国43个特定排放源的甲烷（CH4）排放量，并预测了在两种情景下至2050年的未来趋势：现行立法（CLE）和最大技术可行减排（MFR）。分析采用温室气体与空气污染相互作用和协同效应（GAINS）模型甲烷框架，纳入更新的省级活动数据，以捕捉排放特征和减排能力中固有的显著区域异质性。结果显示，2020年全国CH4预算为1114 MtCO2e，其中能源部门（59%）和农业（28%）为主要贡献者。研究识别出可观的技术减排潜力；至2050年，相对于CLE情景，排放量最多可削减48%，相当于较2020年水平减少46%。能源和废弃物部门是该潜力的主要贡献者。具体而言，煤矿开采CH4减排占能源部门总减排潜力的58%，而强化固体废弃物管理占废弃物部门减排量的97%。关键措施包括通风气甲烷（VAM）氧化和采前抽采，以及厌氧消化和能源利用的回收与利用。由于水热条件（代表温度和湿度的综合影响）、人口状况、经济发展水平的区域差异，最有效的减排策略因省而异。例如，采前抽采和VAM氧化在山西、内蒙古和陕西等主要产煤区影响最大。相比之下，厌氧消化、回收利用和废弃物焚烧在江苏、山东和浙江等经济更发达、人口更稠密的省份发挥主导作用。通过界定区域特定的技术优先事项，本研究量化了中国最大技术减排潜力，并为面临类似减排挑战的其他国家提供指导。

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This study estimates China’s methane (CH4) emissions from 43 specific emission sources in 2020 and projects future trends through 2050 under two scenarios: Current Legislation (CLE) and Maximum Technically Feasible Reduction (MFR). The analysis utilises the Greenhouse gas and Air pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model methane framework, incorporating updated province-level activity data to capture the pronounced regional heterogeneity inherent in emission profiles and mitigation capacities. The results reveal a national CH4 budget of 1114 MtCO2e in 2020, with the energy sector (59%) and agriculture (28%) emerging as the primary contributors. A substantial technical mitigation potential is identified; by 2050, emissions could be curtailed by up to 48% relative to the CLE scenario, representing a 46% reduction from 2020 levels. The energy and waste sectors emerge as the primary contributors to this potential. Specifically, coal mining CH4 abatement constitutes 58% of the energy sector’s total reduction potential, while enhanced solid waste management accounts for 97% of the mitigation within the waste sector. Key measures include ventilation air methane (VAM) oxidation and pre-mining degasification, as well as anaerobic digestion and recovery and utilization for energy use. Owing to regional disparities in hydrothermal conditions (representing the combined influence of temperature and moisture), demographic status, economic development, the most effective mitigation strategies vary across provinces. For example, pre-mining degasification and VAM oxidation are most impactful in major coal-producing regions such as Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi. In contrast, anaerobic digestion, recovery and utilization, and waste incineration play a dominant role in more economically developed and densely populated provinces such as Jiangsu, Shandong and Zhejiang. By delineating region-specific technological priorities, this study quantifies the maximum technical mitigation potential for China and offers guidance for other nations facing similar mitigation challenges.

• openalex https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17040419first seen 2026-05-05 19:15:43 · last seen 2026-06-05 05:17:37