寒冷地建物シミュレーション向け欧州ヒートポンプKEYMARK母集団データセットとCOPモデル

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:建物エネルギーシミュレーションやヒートポンプ性能評価に使える母集団規模の検証済みデータとモデルを提供する。

🏢実務担当者:建物の脱炭素設計・Scope 2算定で用いるヒートポンプCOP前提の現実性を高める根拠として利用できる。

🏛政策担当者:建築物省エネ基準やヒートポンプ普及政策の効果評価に、認証データに基づく性能前提を提供する。

A statistical-population treatment of the European Heat Pump KEYMARK certification corpus for air-to-water heat pumps: deduplicated test-point data, population-scale EN 14825 SCOP validation, mixed-effects population COP models with per-product uncertainty, Estonian climate-transfer data, building archetype load profiles, and standalone conversion code for dynamic building energy simulation. Version 3 (November 2026) – release accompanying the revised Energy and Buildings article “Certified heat-pump performance assumptions in building-energy simulation: representative-product statistic compared with COP time resolution” (under revision). All data, model and code files of version 2 are kept unchanged (only the README, this description, the licence notice and two hold-out provenance and build files, which contained local working paths, were edited; see CHANGES_v3.md ); the new material is in the folder v3/ , and CHANGES_v3.md lists every added file and every correction with its numbers. Two corrections to the EN 14825 SCOP calculator: (i) below the declared operation limit TOL the version 2 calculator held the heat-pump capacity at its value at TOL, whereas EN 14825:2018 (8.6.1) treats the unit as off and assigns the whole bin load to the electric backup heater at COP = 1; the corrected calculator ( v3/code/calculate_scop_en14825.py , EN rule by default, version 2 behaviour behind a flag) changes 2,634 of the 26,478 recalculated rows (2,523 Colder, 111 Average) and moves the share of rows within ±5 % of the declared SCOP from 87.0 % to 87.3 % (±10 %: 96.9 %, unchanged; Colder-zone mean deviation −0.9 % → −1.3 %); (ii) SCOP net now follows EN 14825 Formula (20), with backup heat excluded: Annex H SCOP net 3.65, equal to the reference value (version 2: 3.66, as quoted in the MethodsX supplementary material); SCOP on is unchanged (3.60 vs reference 3.61). With the EN rule, the certification backup-electricity share of the Colder air-to-water population (MethodsX supplementary Table S-J) has a median of 3.3 % instead of 3.0 % and a 90th percentile of 17.0 % instead of 16.5 %; for units with −22 < TOL ≤ −15 °C the median rises from 10.9 % to 13.9 %, while units with TOL ≤ −22 °C and the worked-example unit are unchanged. The recalculated SCOP of the affected rows changes by a median of −0.3 % (less than 1 % for 76 % of them; mean over all rows −0.1 %). The method, the fitted population models, the training data and the worked example are unchanged. Corpus label: the counts 8,522 configurations / 3,879 unique signatures refer to all heat-pump types in the 18 March 2026 snapshot; the air-to-water corpus is 7,408 configurations with test data from 186 manufacturers, merged to 3,399 unique performance signatures (the deposited data files were already air-to-water only). New derived data for the Energy and Buildings article: application-specific (35 °C and 55 °C) population COP coefficients and the other characteristic levels tested (refrigerant, certificate-date band, capacity class); the EN-rule batch recalculation behind Figure S7; corpus counts and robustness stratifications; the model-form comparison with manufacturer-grouped cross-validation; the held-out SCOP-anchored reconstruction (Mode A and Mode B); the empirical DHW ratio curve (E2) used for the hourly DHW COP in every building case – median declared EN 16147 ratios COP DHW (+7 °C)/COP DHW (+2 °C) = 1.2135 (n = 342, 95 % CI 1.19–1.22) and COP DHW (+14 °C)/COP DHW (+7 °C) = 1.1481, log-linear between the declared points and the space-heating shape outside +2…+14 °C (ratio tables, curve values and the function v3/code/dhw_ratio_curve.py ); building-case results (like-for-like comparison, joint space-heating and DHW distribution, backup accounting by mode and TOL); and the plotted values of the revised figures. Automated checks: v3/code/test_en_rule.py . Version 2 (August 2026) – release accompanying the method article (MethodsX 17 (2026) 104120): two anchoring modes (shape-only and backup-aware) implemented and documented in the code; capacity-interpolation Step 4; floor-aware numerical anchoring solve; corrected code constants; new validation/ scripts (out-of-sample error tables, backup-share population, anchored spread, rating-schedule check); a temporal hold-out on a 20 August 2026 Keymark snapshot (66 snapshot-unseen models; derived cohort and error data included, model not refitted) with a deposit-only replay script; IDA ICE consistency-check meter files; automated tests reproducing the worked example. It also adds an external laboratory hold-out: the frozen population COP model (no refitting) evaluated on the published test results of the WPZ Buchs heat-pump test centre (OST – Ostschweizer Fachhochschule, IES; “Prüfresultate Luft/Wasser-Wärmepumpen”, edition 29.05.2026) – 104 tested air-to-water units parsed, a 102-unit primary cohort (49 manufacturers, 1,021 measured EN 14511 full-load and EN 14825 part-load points) after the pre-committed identity screen against the Keymark training corpus. Cold-only fixed effects: MAE 0.448 (manufacturer-cluster bootstrap 95 % CI 0.391–0.521), RMSE 0.607, mean bias −0.054, R² 0.839; full-load points MAE 0.350 / bias +0.036 versus part-load points MAE 0.623 / bias −0.218; all 104 units: MAE 0.451, bias −0.064. Shipped as derived CSVs ( scop_validation/wpz_* ), a deposit-only replay script ( validation/wpz_holdout.py ), build-stage documentation and automated checks ( code/test_wpz_holdout.py ); only the transcribed measured values and derived errors are deposited, the WPZ PDF is not redistributed (source statement in scop_validation/SOURCES_wpz.md ). Data files and fitted models are unchanged and remain frozen to the 18 March 2026 snapshot. Contents models/ – Mixed-effects population COP models of the Log+InvSqrt form COP = β₂ + β₀·ln(ΔT) + β₁/√ΔT, with per-product random effects. All-climate variant (53,551 EN 14825 test points, 3,395 heat-pump groups: β₀ = −1.8528, β₁ = +18.0463, β₂ = +7.2602) and cold-only variant (11,397 Colder-zone points, 979 groups: β₀ = −2.5819, β₁ = +6.6052, β₂ = +11.7252), plus functional-form comparison tables. scop_validation/ – Batch EN 14825 bin-method SCOP recalculation for 26,478 valid configuration×climate×supply-temperature rows (declared vs recalculated SCOP and deviations; version 2 calculator); implementation validated against the EN 14825:2018 Annex H reference example (3.60 vs 3.61). Temporal and WPZ Buchs hold-out data (version 2). training_data/ – The 53,551 deduplicated EN 14825 part-load test points (COP vs temperature lift, with supply temperature, climate zone, and group identifiers) used for model training. climate/ – Estonian test reference year (1990–2020) heating-season hours mapped to 1 °C bins alongside the EN 14825 Colder template, with part-load factors and population COP per bin; population SCOP shape factors under both climates. archetypes/ – Synthetic hourly space-heating and DHW load profiles for two Estonian single-family-house archetypes (pre-retrofit and nZEB), with parameter manifests. code/ – Standalone Python implementations of the EN 14825 bin-method SCOP calculator (version 2) and the four-step SCOP→hourly-COP conversion (heating curve → population COP shape → anchoring → capacity-aware piecewise operation) for dynamic building simulation. v3/ (new in version 3) – code/ : corrected SCOP calculator (EN 14825 below-TOL rule, SCOP net per Formula (20)), patch against version 2, the E2 DHW ratio-curve function and automated checks; scop_validation/ : the batch recalculation re-run with the corrected calculator (26,904 rows, same columns as version 2), version 2 and corrected values side by side, agreement statistics and the recalculated backup-share distribution; validation/ : scripts behind these outputs; models/application_specific/ : population COP coefficients per supply temperature (35/55 °C), refrigerant, certificate-date band and capacity class, with fit statistics, normalised-curve deviations and bootstrap replicates; revision_analyses/ : corpus counts and stratifications, model-form selection with cross-validation, held-out anchored reconstruction, empirical DHW ratio curve (E2), building-case results; figure_values/ : plotted values of the revised figures. Provenance and rights. All quantities are derived from the publicly available Heat Pump KEYMARK certification database ( https://keymark.eu/ , accessed 18 March 2026 (population models and training data are frozen to that snapshot; a separate temporal hold-out uses a later snapshot retrieved 20 August 2026, from which only derived cohort and error data are included, without refitting)). The external laboratory hold-out (part of v2) additionally uses measured values transcribed from the publicly published test-result list of the WPZ Buchs heat-pump test centre (OST; edition 29 May 2026, see scop_validation/SOURCES_wpz.md); only the transcribed factual measurements and the derived errors are deposited, not the source document. The deposit is not a verbatim copy of that registry: it contains the authors’ dedu...

• Zenodo https://zenodo.org/records/23990710first seen 2026-11-10 04:13:38 · last seen 2026-11-11 04:14:51