インドネシアにおけるグリーン水素電力価格と輸出競争力のための閾値ベース政策枠組み
A Threshold-Based Policy Framework for Green Hydrogen Electricity Pricing and Export Competitiveness in Indonesia (原題)
M. H. Prakoso, Wei Sun, Mohammad Arief Rachman
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
インドネシア・パプアのマンベラモ水力資源を用いたグリーン水素の政策評価。規制料金乗数Nとコストの関係を定式化し、パラメータ不確実性下で閾値を検証した。輸送・ボイルオフを考慮すると日本との価格同等にはN≤0.59が必要で、現行0.63では困難。韓国・国内市場は依然到達可能で、段階的ロードマップを提示する。
English
A threshold-based policy assessment for green hydrogen from Papua's Mamberamo hydropower. Linking Indonesia's regulated tariff multiplier to plant-gate cost, it tests how thresholds survive parameter uncertainty. Adding delivery and boil-off costs, Japanese parity requires a multiplier ≤0.59 versus the prevailing 0.63, while South Korea and domestic markets stay accessible. A phased roadmap ties milestones to these thresholds.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本の水素調達・エネルギー安全保障と直結する輸出競争力分析。日本の水素政策・輸入戦略を検討する読者に示唆。
In the global GX context
Speaks to global hydrogen trade and transition finance by quantifying export competitiveness thresholds and geographic boil-off advantages, relevant to cross-border hydrogen offtake and policy design.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:不確実性下での閾値感度分析とLCOH・輸送コスト統合の手法が参考になる。
🏢実務担当者:水素調達・輸入の価格同等条件とボイルオフ影響を投資判断に活用できる。
🏛政策担当者:料金乗数や輸出戦略の政策閾値設計に直接示唆を与える。
📄 Abstract（原文）
Indonesia holds substantial renewable resources for green hydrogen, yet the policy conditions that would make it competitive remain underexamined. This paper develops a threshold-based policy assessment for hydrogen from the Mamberamo hydropower resource in Papua, taking a plant-gate levelised cost of USD 4.15/kg from a prior techno-economic study and testing how far the resulting thresholds survive parameter uncertainty. First, the regulated tariff multiplier N of Ministerial Regulation No. 28 of 2016 is linked to cost through a fitted relation (0.65 + 5.52N, R2 = 0.997) whose coefficients are perturbed for capital cost, cost of capital and stack degradation; the multiplier for sub-USD 5/kg production spans 0.64 to 0.82, with degradation the binding uncertainty. Second, a delivery model separating terminal handling, voyage cost and duration-dependent boil-off raises landed prices to USD 5.63 to 5.95/kg and lowers every break-even multiplier, so Japanese parity now requires N at or below 0.59 rather than the prevailing 0.63, while South Korea (0.84) and the domestic market (0.77) remain accessible. Boil-off of 1.8% to Japan against 7.0% from Chile is the mechanism behind Indonesia’s geographic advantage. Third, extending sectoral analysis to full cost including vehicle premiums, refuelling and stack capital lowers the transport cost ratio from 1.22 to 0.46, although transport still leads a weighted multi-criteria ranking at 3.85 against 3.60 for isolated electricity. Life cycle abatement costs remain negative for transport on an energy basis but turn positive once capital is counted. A phased roadmap pegs each milestone to the thresholds established under uncertainty.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- semanticscholar https://doi.org/10.1109/ict-pep71341.2026.11761764first seen 2026-11-13 05:53:22 · last seen 2026-11-14 05:52:46
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