The clean energy trade war: assessing the climate costs of U.S. solar tariffs on China’s PV sector
クリーンエネルギー貿易戦争：米国の太陽光関税が中国のPV部門に与える気候コストの評価 (AI 翻訳)
Hui Yuan, Shuxian Zheng
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、米国の中国製太陽光パネルへの関税が中国のPV部門の排出に与える影響を、多地域産業連関モデルとGTAP-Eモデルを用いて分析。極端な関税下では中国の排出が2025-27年に4.9%増加し、米国は30.5%増加する「負け負け」の結果を予測。関税が18-19%を超えると中国の排出削減が逆転し、累積削減量が41%減少する。
English
This study analyzes the impact of U.S. tariffs on Chinese PV products on embodied carbon emissions using MRIO and GTAP-E models. Extreme tariffs cause China's PV emissions to rebound by 4.9% during 2025-2027 and U.S. emissions to surge by 30.5%, a lose-lose outcome. A critical tariff threshold of 18-19% is identified, beyond which China's emission reductions reverse, reducing cumulative reductions by 41%.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本のGX政策にとって、貿易措置が再生可能エネルギー普及と排出削減に与える影響は重要。日本は中国製PVに依存しており、関税や貿易摩擦が調達コストと排出削減目標に影響する可能性がある。本研究は、気候変動対策と貿易政策の整合性の重要性を示唆し、日本のエネルギー政策立案に示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This paper contributes to global discourse on climate-resilient trade rules, highlighting how tariffs can undermine decarbonization. It provides empirical evidence for policymakers balancing trade and climate goals, relevant to WTO discussions and carbon border adjustments.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a quantitative framework linking trade policy to embodied carbon emissions, useful for further research on trade-climate nexus.
🏢実務担当者:Highlights supply chain risks for solar procurement, informing sourcing strategies and risk assessment.
🏛政策担当者:Offers evidence for designing trade policies that align with climate goals, relevant for trade and energy ministries.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Introduction This study investigates how U.S. tariffs on Chinese photovoltaic (PV) products affect the embodied carbon emissions and decarbonization trajectory of China’s PV power sector. Methods We couple a multi-regional input-output model, the Tapio decoupling model, and the GTAP-E computable general equilibrium model. Historical data from 2000–2022 establish baseline trends, while three policy scenarios are simulated for 2023–2030, with a parameter sweep identifying critical tariff thresholds. Results Historical analysis reveals progressive decoupling (1% output growth drives only 0.5% embodied carbon increase). Under extreme tariffs (TTB), China’s PV embodied carbon rebounds by 4.9% cumulatively during 2025–2027, while U.S. emissions surge by 30.5%, reflecting a lose–lose outcome. A critical tariff threshold of 18–19% is identified, beyond which China’s PV emissions reverse from decline to growth. Although China regains strong decoupling by 2030, extreme tariffs still reduce cumulative emission reductions by 41%. Discussion These findings reveal a nonlinear relationship between tariff intensity and decarbonization outcomes, highlighting how geopolitical trade measures undermine climate goals and underscoring the need for climate-resilient international trade rules.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2026.1835650first seen 2026-08-16 05:08:24
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