Impact Analysis of Climate Change on Buildings’ Heating and Cooling Demand
気候変動が建物の冷暖房需要に与える影響分析 (AI 翻訳)
Guillem Fargas, Amirhossein Zabihi Sheshpoli, Neus Ortega, Álvaro de Gracia
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
地中海地域の気候変動が建物の冷暖房需要に与える影響を、スペインの5気候区分と3建物タイプでシミュレーション。2050年には冷房需要が最大706%増加し、暖房需要は減少する。気候適応型設計と改修の必要性を示す。
English
This study simulates the impact of climate change on building heating and cooling demand in the Mediterranean, using five Spanish climate zones and three building types. By 2050, cooling demand could increase by up to 706% while heating demand decreases, highlighting the need for climate-responsive design and retrofitting.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本の建築分野では省エネ基準やZEB推進が進むが、将来の気候変動を考慮した需要予測は不十分。本研究成果は、日本の気候区分に応じた適応策や改修政策の検討に示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This study provides a methodology for assessing climate change impacts on building energy demand, relevant for global adaptation planning. It underscores the need to update building codes and energy policies to account for future cooling demand, which is critical for grid stability and emissions reduction.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Methodology for simulating future building energy demand under climate scenarios, applicable to other regions.
🏢実務担当者:Insights for designing climate-resilient buildings and retrofitting strategies to manage future cooling loads.
🏛政策担当者:Evidence for updating building energy codes and grid planning to address rising cooling demand.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Climate change has become one of the most urgent challenges of the 21st century, shaping environmental, economic, and social dynamics on a global scale. In the Mediterranean basin, temperatures have risen by 1.5 °C, with projections suggesting a further increase of 5.6 °C by 2100. The building sector represents a critical intervention point, accounting for 30% of final energy consumption and 27% of global carbon dioxide emissions. While passive strategies mitigate these impacts, current energy policies fail to consider future variations in heating and cooling demand due to climate change. Using OpenStudio and EnergyPlus, three reference models (small office, residential building, and hospital) were simulated across five Spanish climatic areas (Almería, Córdoba, Cáceres, Lleida, León). Current conditions were compared against 2050 projections under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6 to SSP5-8.5) utilizing the morphing method. The results revealed a systemic shift toward cooling-dominated profiles. Small office heating demand drops by 18–34%, while cooling demand increases by 80–274%. Residential heating decreases by 19–36%, while cooling increases by 85–706%. Hospitals show milder relative variations, yet cooling demand rises 64–114%. These findings, based on thermal energy demand (kWh/m2), emphasize the need for climate-responsive design and efficient retrofitting. Conclusions regarding peak power grid stress, carbon emissions, or energy poverty are indirect implications; translating thermal demand to final energy, primary energy, or emissions requires accounting for HVAC system efficiency, energy source mix, and emission factors, which are outside the scope of this study.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.3390/en19143438first seen 2026-08-09 05:06:39
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