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欧州セメント産業の脱炭素化:部門横断的依存関係のボトムアップ評価

Decarbonizing the European Cement Industry: A Bottom-Up Assessment of Cross-Sectoral Dependencies (原題)

Alexander, Kling, Holtz, Georg

Zenodoプレプリント2026-11-12#CCUSOrigin: EU経営インパクト: 調達リスク対象セクター: construction
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.24163034
原典: https://zenodo.org/records/24163034
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🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

欧州セメント産業の脱炭素経路を、拠点レベルのキルンから地域ミリングまでを表現するボトムアップ最適化モデルITOM-Cementで分析。鉄鋼業の高炉スラグ供給、石油化学との代替燃料・循環原料の競合、CO2輸送・貯留網の整備という3つの部門横断依存が、クリンカー生産の集約と産業クラスター再編を促しうると示す。CO2価格上昇下では2030年までに化石燃料代替が可能な一方、CCS導入で電力需要が急増する。

English

Uses ITOM-Cement, a bottom-up optimization model covering site-level clinker kilns to regional milling, to assess EU27+UK cement decarbonization pathways. It highlights three cross-sector dependencies—steel slag as SCM, competition with petrochemicals for alternative fuels/circular feedstocks, and CO2 transport and storage infrastructure—that may centralize clinker production and reshape industrial clusters. Rising CO2 prices could displace fossil fuels by 2030, but CCS deployment sharply raises electricity demand.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

セメントは日本の排出量取引制度(GX-ETS)やSSBJ開示でもScope1排出が大きい素材産業であり、部門横断の資源制約(スラグ・廃棄物・CCSインフラ)を定量化する視点は、日本の産業クラスター・カーボンニュートラル政策の議論に直接応用できる。

In the global GX context

Cement is a hard-to-abate sector central to EU ETS and CBAM debates; this work shows how cross-sector material and infrastructure constraints—not just carbon price—shape credible transition pathways, informing ISSB/CSRD disclosure of transition plans and industrial cluster policy.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:部門横断依存を組み込んだボトムアップ最適化モデリングの設計と、素材産業脱炭素の制約条件の定量化手法が参考になる。

🏢実務担当者:セメント・素材企業の脱炭素計画では、スラグ供給やCCSインフラなど自社外の制約を織り込む必要があると示唆される。

🏛政策担当者:CCS用CO2輸送・貯留網の整備と、代替燃料・副産物の部門間配分ルールの設計が脱炭素実現の鍵となる。

📄 Abstract(原文)

The European cement industry is at a critical juncture, requiring a "twin transition" toward climate neutrality and circularity. As one of the most energy- and CO2-intensive sectors—accounting for 4% of all EU energy and industry-related emissions—its transformation is essential for meeting regional climate goals. This presentation explores decarbonization pathways for the EU27+UK cement sector using ITOM-Cement, a high-resolution, bottom-up optimization model. Developed as a cornerstone of the MIC3 modeling framework within the TRANSIENCE project, ITOM-Cement provides a granular representation of the production chain, from site-level clinker kilns to regional cement milling. The model uniquely captures the dynamic interplay of external factors, such as CO2 prices, regional resource availability, and multi-modal transport logistics. We present two distinct scenarios that highlight the cement industry's integration within the broader industrial "solution space". The analysis focuses on three pivotal cross-sector dependencies: The Steel Industry: Examining the evolving availability of blast furnace slag, a primary supplementary cementitious material (SCM) currently used to reduce the clinker factor. The Petrochemical Industry: Analyzing competition for carbon-based energy carriers. As sectors decarbonize, materials once used as alternative fuels in cement kilns are increasingly sought by petrochemical firms as circular feedstocks. Infrastructure Logistics: Assessing how the cost and availability of CO2 transport and storage networks dictate the feasibility of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS). Our findings suggest these factors may drive a centralization of clinker production and significantly reshape industrial clusters. Preliminary results indicate that while fossil fuels could be replaced by 2030 under rising CO2 prices, electricity demand will rise sharply as CCS is deployed. We conclude by outlining policy implications necessary to support this climate-neutral transition.

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