Energy transition in India and the race for renewable energy to outpace fossil fuels in carbon reduction
インドのエネルギー転換と、炭素削減において再生可能エネルギーが化石燃料を追い抜く競争 (AI 翻訳)
Haris Noor, Md Imran Khan, Ishfaq Ahmad Malik
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
インドの1991〜2024年のデータを用い、再生可能エネルギーと化石燃料の消費がCO2排出に与える影響をOLSとベイズ回帰で分析。再エネ1%増で排出1.20%減、化石燃料1%増で1.51%増と推定。ベイズ法が不確実性の把握に優れ、炭素税や排出制限などの政策提言を行う。
English
Analyzing India's 1991-2024 data, this study uses OLS and Bayesian regression to estimate the impact of renewable and fossil fuel consumption on CO2 emissions. A 1% increase in renewables reduces emissions by 1.20%, while a 1% increase in fossil fuels raises them by 1.51%. Bayesian methods better capture uncertainty, leading to policy recommendations like carbon taxes and emissions limits.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
インドの事例は、日本がアジアの排出削減協力やJCMを進める上で参考になる。再エネ拡大と化石燃料依存のジレンマは、日本のエネルギー政策にも示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This empirical evidence from India contributes to global understanding of energy transition dynamics, relevant for countries balancing growth and decarbonization. It underscores the need for robust policy frameworks, aligning with global climate goals.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides empirical estimates on renewable vs. fossil fuel elasticities, useful for energy-economy modeling.
🏢実務担当者:Highlights the importance of renewable investment and policy signals for corporate strategy in emerging markets.
🏛政策担当者:Offers evidence for carbon pricing and fossil fuel reduction policies in developing economies.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Due to rapid economic growth, India is the world's third-largest emitter of carbon, with a high reliance on fossil fuels. Simultaneously, the country has been on an unparalleled course of renewable energy development, making serious strides through its National Solar Mission and its Paris Pledge. This study examines the linkages among renewable energy use, fossil fuel use, and carbon emissions in India between 1991 and 2024. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Bayesian linear regression provide the study with a powerful tool, offering a comparative framework with particular emphasis on the benefits of frequentist and probabilistic approaches. Based on the findings, a 1 percent increase in the use of renewable energy consumption has reduced carbon dioxide emissions by approximately 1.20 percent, whereas a 1 percent increase in the use of fossil fuel consumption has increased carbon dioxide emissions by about 1.51 percent. Despite OLS's definite elasticity estimates, the Bayesian approach provides better insights (a posterior distribution and credible intervals), as it captures uncertainty. The two models are verified by diagnostic tests, but Bayesian methods offer additional advantages, including the ability to handle small samples and to handle multicollinearity. The findings reveal that, despite the effectiveness of renewable energy in reducing emissions, India's carbon trajectory is determined by the massive expansion of fossil fuel production. The study concludes that the decarbonization goal should be achieved through increased use of renewable energy and active measures to reduce fossil fuel dependence, including the introduction of carbon taxes, emissions limits, and investment in clean technologies.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-026-04129-1first seen 2026-08-10 04:43:04
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