General Equilibrium Effects of Carbon Offsets
カーボンオフセットの一般均衡効果 (AI 翻訳)
Isla Globus-Harris, Daniel H Karney
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は炭素オフセットの一般均衡モデルを構築し、オフセット価格の上昇が排出量と厚生に曖昧な効果を持つことを示す。二つの炭素会計指標を用いて、オフセットが過大評価されることが多いが、過小評価も起こりうることを証明した。一般均衡効果のため、会計指標だけでは厚生を捉えきれない。オフセットが支払いに応じる四つの経路（うち一つは新規）を定義し、市場波及効果の考慮を提言。
English
This paper constructs an analytical general equilibrium model of an economy with carbon offsets and shows that increasing the offset price has ambiguous effects on emissions and welfare. Using two carbon accounting metrics, it demonstrates that offsets are often over-credited, but under-crediting can also occur. Due to general equilibrium effects, neither metric alone is a sufficient statistic for welfare. It identifies four margins of offset response, including a novel one, and argues that market spillover effects warrant consideration in offset policy.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本ではJ-クレジット制度などオフセット市場が発展途上にあり、本論文の一般均衡による分析は、クレジットの過大/過小評価リスクや市場波及効果を考慮した制度設計に示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
Globally, carbon offsets are used in compliance and voluntary markets. This paper's general equilibrium lens highlights that offset policies can have unintended spillover effects, challenging the assumption that offsets reliably reduce emissions. It informs the design of accounting rules and policy frameworks under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a rigorous general equilibrium framework for analyzing offset program design and the limitations of carbon accounting metrics.
🏢実務担当者:Highlights the risk that offsets may be over- or under-credited, affecting the credibility of corporate net-zero claims.
🏛政策担当者:Emphasizes the need to account for market spillover effects when designing offset policies, such as Japan's J-credit system.
📄 Abstract（原文）
We construct an analytical general equilibrium model of an economy with carbon offsets, and show that increasing the carbon offset price has an ambiguous effect on aggregate emissions and welfare. Using two carbon accounting metrics, we demonstrate that offsets are over-credited under many parameterizations; however, offset under-crediting can also occur. Due to general equilibrium effects, neither carbon accounting metric is a sufficient statistic for welfare. Furthermore, we define four margins whereby offsets can respond to payments, including a margin not previously identified. Our results suggest that market spillover effects warrant consideration when evaluating carbon offset policies.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- arXiv https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.25909first seen 2026-06-25 04:11:03
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