環境保護と持続可能な食料システムの統合枠組みにおける全球植林炭素隔離ポテンシャル

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🔬研究者:統合評価モデルを用いた植林ポテンシャル評価の最新手法と、食料システム変革が炭素隔離に与える影響を定量化した点が参考になる。

🏢実務担当者:森林炭素クレジットや土地利用に関わる企業は、環境制約と食料安全保障のトレードオフを理解し、持続可能な調達・投資判断に活用できる。

🏛政策担当者:気候緩和と生物多様性・食料安全保障を両立させる統合政策の設計に、定量的な根拠を提供する。

Afforestation is a high-potential and cost-effective climate change mitigation strategy, but its large-scale implementation raises sustainability concerns. It requires extensive areas of land, potentially conflicting with agriculture and impacting food security. Moreover, inappropriate forest expansion, such as the afforestation of naturally open habitats, could reduce habitats for non-forest organisms and may cause biodiversity loss. Here, we assess the global mitigation potential of afforestation by integrating environmental constraints and sustainable food system transformations within an integrated assessment model framework. Using the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM), including the AIM-Hub general equilibrium model and AIM-PLUM spatial land use allocation model, we evaluated seven scenarios incorporating biodiversity protection, soil quality enhancement, dietary shifts, food waste reduction, trade, and irrigation intensification. We found that environmental considerations reduce the maximum afforestation potential to 2.13 GtCO2 yr−1, highlighting the importance of accounting for land use trade-offs. However, sustainable food system transformations substantially recover this mitigation potential, increasing afforestation-based carbon sequestration to 5.01 GtCO2 yr−1 by 2100. Approximately 90% of this potential can be achieved at a cost below 50 USD tCO2−1. Our study emphasizes the need for integrated policies to balance climate mitigation with environmental conservation.

• openalex https://doi.org/10.3390/land15091733first seen 2026-10-05 05:18:38