水ストレス下の脱炭素：チリ2050年炭素中立経路からの水・エネルギー・土地ネクサス洞察
Decarbonizing under water stress: Water-energy-land nexus insights from Chile's 2050 carbon neutrality pathway (原題)
Josephine Henze, Silvia R. Santos da Silva, Felipe Feijoo, Francisco Flores, Fernando Miralles-Wilhelm, Paelina Destephano, Page G. Kyle, Homero A. Paltán
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
チリ初の全国GCAM-Chileモデルを適用し、エネルギー・土地利用部門の炭素中立経路が水需要に与える影響を評価。再生可能エネルギーによる脱炭素は火力冷却需要を切り離し電力部門の取水量を大幅削減するが、低コストCCS普及シナリオでは削減効果が小さい。総取水量は農業灌漑が支配的で全シナリオで増加し、土地利用緩和は食料生産とのトレードオフを生む。
English
First national GCAM-Chile application assesses how combined energy- and land-sector carbon-neutrality pathways reshape water demand in water-stressed Chile. Renewable-led decarbonization cuts power-sector water withdrawals by decoupling generation from thermal cooling, while low-cost CCS scenarios yield smaller reductions. Irrigation dominates total withdrawals and grows in all scenarios; land mitigation cuts irrigation but trades off with food production.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本は水ストレスが相対的に低いが、再エネ拡大とCCS依存の水需給影響を比較する視点は、第7次エネルギー基本計画やGX推進戦略の電源構成議論に示唆を与える。ネクサス評価手法は国内の地域別脱炭素計画にも応用可能。
In the global GX context
Adds to global transition scholarship by quantifying water-demand co-benefits and trade-offs of carbon-neutrality pathways, a dimension often missing from TCFD/ISSB-aligned transition planning. Relevant to ISSB water and biodiversity disclosure and to nexus-aware transition finance in water-scarce regions.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:統合評価モデルで水・エネルギー・土地ネクサスを炭素中立経路に組み込む手法の実例を提供する。
🏢実務担当者:再エネ調達やCCS導入検討時に水リスク・取水コストを併せて評価する必要性を示す。
🏛政策担当者:水ストレス地域では脱炭素政策の水需要副作用を事前評価し、食料・水政策と整合させる必要がある。
📄 Abstract（原文）
Abstract Anthropogenic climate change is exacerbating water scarcity in Mediterranean climate regions, such as Central Chile, which already has a low annual precipitation rate, increasing the likelihood of a potentially permanent “mega-drought”. While carbon-neutrality policies often combine energy- and land-sector measures, their specific implications for water-energy-land interactions in Chile remain insufficiently explored. This study presents the first national-level application of GCAM-Chile to assess how combined energy- and land-sector carbon-neutrality pathways may reshape sectoral water-demand patterns in an already water-stressed context. We examine one reference scenario and eight alternative carbon-neutrality pathways combining energy-sector decarbonization with different levels of land-sector mitigation while holding basin water supply static, so re-sults reflect changes in water demand rather than future water availability. Findings indicate that renewable energy-enabled decarbonization substantially reduces electricity-sector water withdrawals by decoupling power generation from thermal cooling demand, offering direct water-demand co-benefits in a water-scarce context. Scenarios that assume the emergence of low-cost carbon capture and storage technologies, achieve smaller reductions in electricity water withdrawals due to the higher water demands associated with fossil generation equipped with these technologies. However, total water withdrawals remain dominated by agricultural irrigation, which continues to grow under all scenarios. Land-sector mitigation reduces irrigation demand by constraining agricultural production, but introduces trade-offs with food production. The implications of these interactions could instigate a new policy landscape of water-energy-land interactions in Chile's near future, necessitating further attention to nexus implications of climate policies in water-scarce contexts.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aeac70first seen 2026-09-27 04:40:20
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