地政学リスクと再生可能エネルギー消費の空間収束：1996年から2026年の実証分析
Geopolitical risk and the spatial convergence of renewable energy consumption: Evidence from 1996 to 2026 (原題)
Liu He, 邹佰峰, Xing Chiang
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
1996〜2026年の均衡パネルを用い、再生可能エネルギー消費にσ・γ・空間β収束が存在することを示した。地政学リスク（GPR）が高いほど条件付き空間β収束が遅くなる（LnGPR=0.014, p<0.05）。空間依存と統制変数を考慮しても収束係数は負で有意（β=−0.055, p<0.01）。エネルギー安全保障・技術革新・コスト低減との関連を示唆するが因果ではない。
English
Using a balanced 1996–2026 panel, the study finds σ-, γ-, and spatial β-convergence in renewable energy consumption. Higher geopolitical risk is significantly associated with slower conditional spatial β-convergence (LnGPR = 0.014, p < 0.05), while the convergence coefficient remains negative and significant (β = −0.055, p < 0.01). Results suggest links to energy security, innovation, and cost reduction, though relationships are associative, not causal.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本はエネルギー自給率が低く、地政学リスクが再エネ導入・調達戦略に直結する。本論文は、GPRが高い局面で再エネ収束が遅れることを示し、日本のエネルギー安全保障政策や企業の再エネ調達・長期電源計画を考える上で示唆を与える。SSBJ開示とは直接の接点は薄い。
In the global GX context
Amid TCFD/ISSB-aligned transition planning, this paper links geopolitical uncertainty to the pace of renewable energy convergence, relevant to transition finance and energy-security narratives. It adds a spatial-econometric perspective to global debates on coordinated decarbonization pathways, though it does not address disclosure frameworks directly.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:空間収束モデルに地政学リスクを組み込む手法は、エネルギー転換の実証研究に応用可能な枠組みを提供する。
🏢実務担当者:地政学リスクが高い時期には再エネ調達・電源ポートフォリオの収束が遅れ得る点を、長期エネルギー戦略のリスク要因として考慮できる。
🏛政策担当者:再エネ普及の国際収束を促すには、地政学リスクと石油依存度を踏まえた調整的エネルギー政策が必要である。
📄 Abstract（原文）
As global energy systems undergo rapid transition amid escalating geopolitical tensions, understanding how renewable energy consumption converges across countries has become critical for designing resilient and coordinated energy policies. The analysis uses a balanced panel covering 1996–2026, retaining published observations wherever available and using ARIMA-based terminal extensions only for unavailable observations; robustness is additionally assessed using a restricted pre-2024 sample covering 1996–2023. The empirical findings provide robust evidence of σ-convergence, γ-convergence, and both absolute and conditional spatial β-convergence in renewable energy consumption, with convergence coefficients ranging from −0.023 to −0.073 across specifications. The results reveal that geopolitical risk (GPR) is positively and statistically significantly associated with the estimated conditional spatial β-convergence parameter (LnGPR = 0.014, p < 0.05), indicating that higher geopolitical risk is correlated with a slower rate of convergence. The conditional spatial β-convergence coefficient is negative and significant (β = −0.055, p < 0.01), confirming convergence after accounting for spatial dependence and control variables. This study contributes to the literature by integrating geopolitical risk into the spatial convergence framework of renewable energy consumption, offering new insights into the interaction between global uncertainty and energy transition. The findings suggest that fostering convergence in renewable energy consumption is associated with potential energy security benefits, including technological innovation, improved efficiency, reduced production costs, and increased energy diversification. However, these relationships are associative and do not establish causality. Policymakers should therefore consider geopolitical conditions and oil-resource dependence when designing strategies to achieve sustainable energy transitions and net-zero targets.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2026.105920first seen 2026-10-09 04:54:32
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