気候移行リスクは都市間の経済格差を拡大するか？中国285の地級市からのエビデンス
Does Climate Transition Risk Widen Inter-City Economic Disparities? Evidence from 285 Prefecture-Level Cities in China (原題)
Wenna Fan
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
中国285市・2005〜2024年を対象に、気候政策不確実性で代理した移行リスクが都市間経済格差に与える影響をRIF回帰で検証。移行リスクは格差と二極化を拡大し、高成長・非資源型・東部都市で顕著。産業構造の偏りとグリーン技術格差が媒介し、エネルギー効率とグリーン信用の改善が格差拡大を緩和する。
English
Using RIF regression on 285 Chinese cities (2005–2024), this study finds that climate transition risk—proxied by climate policy uncertainty—widens inter-city economic disparities and polarization, especially in high-growth, non-resource-based, and eastern cities. Industrial lock-in and green-technology gaps mediate the effect, while energy-efficiency gains and green credit availability mitigate it.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
中国の都市間格差という文脈だが、移行リスクが地域経済に非対称に作用する点は、日本の地域脱炭素・GX推進や移行金融の地域配分を考える上でも示唆に富む。SSBJ開示や有報での移行リスク記述を、企業単位ではなく地域経済単位で捉える視点を提供する。
In the global GX context
Adds to transition-risk scholarship by shifting the unit of analysis from firms to cities, showing distributional consequences of climate policy uncertainty. Relevant to global debates on just transition and how transition finance and disclosure (TCFD/ISSB) should account for regional divergence.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:移行リスクの地域経済への分配効果をRIF・媒介分析で定量化した手法と知見が参考になる。
🏢実務担当者:地域拠点の移行リスクとグリーン信用アクセスの差が事業環境・調達・資金調達コストに与える影響を把握する材料。
🏛政策担当者:移行政策の地域非対称な影響を踏まえ、グリーン金融・エネルギー効率支援の地域配分設計に示唆。
📄 Abstract（原文）
In the global efforts to combat climate warming and promote low-carbon development, the transition risks stemming from continuous adjustments and changes in policies, technologies, and markets have become another important driver exacerbating inter-city economic divergence with disparate industrial foundations, resource endowments, and transition prerequisites. Based on a mathematical economic modeling framework, this article constructs a Recentered Influence Function (RIF) regression model to empirically examine the direct impacts and heterogeneous characteristics of climate transition risks (proxied by climate policy uncertainty) on inter-city economic disparities across 285 Chinese cities from 2005 to 2024 and further analyzes the underlying mechanisms and feedback effects through mediation and moderation effect models. The empirical results reveal that climate transition risks widen inter-city economic disparities and amplify the polarization effect in inter-city economic development. Moreover, the positive impact of transition risks on inter-city economic disparities is more pronounced in the types of high-growth, non-resource-based, and Eastern Chinese cities. The mediating transmission channels through which climate transition risks affect inter-city economic disparities include the lock-in effect of industrial structural imbalances and disparities in green technology; improvements in energy efficiency and green credit availability can mitigate the amplifying influence of transition risks on inter-city economic inequality. This study enriches the theoretical foundation in the field of climate finance regarding transition risks and balanced regional development, which provides practical guidance and policy evidence for addressing inter-city economic disparities arising from climate change and energy transition, as well as advancing coordinated and balanced urban economic development via green transformation.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.3390/su181910132first seen 2026-10-07 05:08:37
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