中東欧の脱炭素を説明するものは何か？再エネ導入、所得、持続する構造的差異

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:小標本パネルでの構造ベースラインと政策効果の分離手法、およびEKC検証の限界を学べる。

🏢実務担当者:再エネ調達が排出削減に最も効く一方、自社の初期構造が移行速度を規定しないことを示唆。

🏛政策担当者:EU公正移行基金の配分は所得収束ではなく構造差と再エネ導入支援に重点を置くべきとの示唆。

This study empirically investigates the determinants of CO2 emissions within a balanced panel of six Central and Eastern European (CEE) EU member states (Bulgaria, Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia) over the 2004–2024 period. The contribution is threefold. First, the observation window extends beyond the structural discontinuities introduced by the 2020 pandemic shock and the 2022 European energy crisis, a period not covered by existing CEE panel studies. Second, the analysis separates each country’s inherited, time-invariant structural emissions baseline from its contemporary, policy-driven decarbonization rates, a distinction the literature has not systematically drawn for this region. Third, inference is conducted using procedures appropriate to small cross-sectional dimensions, addressing a methodological limitation common to regional panel studies of this kind. The model is estimated using a fixed-effects panel estimator, with random effects reported as a robustness check. Income enters through a quadratic specification consistent with the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis. The estimated coefficients carry the theoretically predicted signs and are stable across specifications, though the cross-sectional dimension of the panel limits the precision with which they can be identified. Renewable energy share emerges as the most robust correlate of emissions reductions across the panel, retaining its sign, magnitude and significance across alternative estimators, augmented control specifications, subsample estimation and robust inference procedures. Country-level fixed effects reveal substantial and persistent structural heterogeneity that is not explained by income, renewable deployment or sectoral composition, and whose exact composition cannot be identified at this cross-sectional dimension. These structural positions prove largely unrelated to decarbonization performance over the period, indicating that inherited emissions baselines describe where economies start rather than how quickly they transition. The findings indicate that near-term CEE decarbonization is associated more strongly with persistent country-level structural differences and renewable deployment than with aggregate income convergence, with implications for the calibration of EU Just Transition mechanisms across structurally heterogeneous member states.

• crossref https://doi.org/10.3390/su181910110first seen 2026-10-06 06:03:38