IMOネットゼロ枠組み下における国際海運セクターの燃料転換の経済的費用と便益
Economic Costs and Benefits of Fuel Transition in the International Shipping Sector Under the IMO Net-Zero Framework (原題)
Donghai Wang, Chunchang Zhang, Chengyue Zhang, Jia Zhu, Penghao Su
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
IMOがMEPC第83回会合で示したネットゼロ枠組み草案が海運の燃料転換に与える経済影響を、燃料費・炭素排出費・新造船／改造投資費を組み込んだモデルで評価。2025〜2050年の4シナリオ分析では、高需要・高余剰単位（SU）価格の初期段階のみ正の経済収益が得られ、他3シナリオでは最大2,933.7億ドルの追加費用が生じる。燃料価格とGHG燃料強度が主要パラメータで、バイオ燃料はe-fuelより経済性が優れるが、代替燃料船投資の回収は困難と結論。e-fuelへの的を絞った資金支援と段階的で柔軟なコンプライアンス枠組みを提言する。
English
This study models the economic impact of the IMO's draft Net-Zero Framework on shipping fuel transition, incorporating fuel, carbon, and newbuilding/retrofit costs. Across four 2025-2050 scenarios, positive returns occur only early under high-demand/high-SU-price conditions; other scenarios add up to USD 293.37 billion in costs by 2050. Fuel price and GHG intensity are key drivers, biofuels outperform e-fuels, and vessel investments are unlikely to be recouped. It recommends targeted e-fuel financial support and a phased, flexible compliance framework.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
IMOの国際枠組みは日本の海運・造船業（商船三井、日本郵船、川崎汽船等）の燃料転換投資判断に直結する。SSBJや有報での気候関連開示において、Scope 3排出と移行計画の経済的前提を検討する際の定量的参照点を提供する。
In the global GX context
Directly informs the global implementation of the IMO Net-Zero Framework and complements TCFD/ISSB transition-plan disclosure by quantifying fuel-transition costs and compliance economics for shipping. It adds empirical scenario evidence to the debate on carbon pricing (SU mechanism) and targeted transition finance for hard-to-abate maritime transport.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:IMO枠組み下の燃料転換コストとSU価格感度を定量化したシナリオ分析の手法と結果を参照できる。
🏢実務担当者:海運・造船・荷主企業は代替燃料船投資の回収困難性と、e-fuel支援・段階的コンプライアンスの必要性を投資計画に反映できる。
🏛政策担当者:IMOおよび国内規制当局は、e-fuelへの的を絞った資金支援と柔軟な段階的枠組み設計の根拠として活用できる。
📄 Abstract（原文）
To assess the economic impact of the draft Net-Zero Framework proposed by the International Maritime Organization at the 83rd session of the Marine Environment Protection Committee on shipping fuel transition, an economic assessment model incorporating fuel costs, carbon emission costs and newbuilding or retrofit investment costs was developed. The model compared the unit transition cost and net present value of alternative fuels. Four scenarios combining transport demand and surplus unit (SU) prices were established to analyze fuel transition costs and economic benefits from 2025 to 2050. Results revealed that a positive economic return was achieved only in the early stage under the high-demand and high-SU-price scenario. Under the other three scenarios, fuel transition would introduce additional costs to the shipping sector, up to USD 293.37 billion by 2050. Fuel price and greenhouse gas fuel intensity were identified as key parameters affecting transition costs, while the SU price had a limited impact on net-zero compliance. Biofuels exhibited better economic performance than e-fuels, and investments in all alternative-fuel-powered vessels were unlikely to be recouped. Targeted financial support mechanisms for electro-fuels and a phased flexible compliance framework are suggested.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.3390/eng7100497first seen 2026-09-26 04:48:51
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