ウガンダ・ブニャブガブ県の小規模コーヒー農家における気候変動とコーヒー収量の傾向：横断研究
Climate variability and trends in coffee yields among smallholder farmers in Bunyangabu District, Uganda. A cross-sectional study. (原題)
Caleb Nahabwe, Gershom Nuwemuhwezi, Wycliffe Tumwesigye
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
ウガンダ・ブニャブガブ県の小規模コーヒー農家を対象に、過去10年の収量変化と気候変動の影響を横断的混合手法で分析。69.6%が収量減少を報告し、気候変動が最大の要因（71.2%）と認識された。害虫・病害、土壌劣化も有意な要因で、政府による収量モニタリング体制の構築を提言する。
English
A cross-sectional mixed-methods study in Bunyangabu District, Uganda, examines a decade of coffee yield changes among smallholder farmers. 69.6% reported declines, with climate variability cited as the dominant driver (71.2%), followed by pests/diseases and soil degradation. The authors recommend a national household-level coffee yield monitoring system.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本企業のコーヒー調達・食品サプライチェーンにとって、気候変動が一次産品の供給リスクとなることを示す事例。Scope 3上流の農業由来リスク評価や、気候関連財務開示における物理的リスクの実証材料として参考になる。
In the global GX context
Adds grassroots empirical evidence on physical climate risk in agricultural supply chains, relevant to TCFD/ISSB physical-risk assessment and to corporate Scope 3 upstream sourcing risk. Complements global coffee-sector adaptation research with Ugandan smallholder data.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:気候変動が小規模農業生産性に与える影響の地域実証データとして、適応研究や食料システム研究に活用できる。
🏢実務担当者:コーヒー等農産物を調達する企業は、上流サプライチェーンの気候物理リスクと調達安定性の観点で参照できる。
🏛政策担当者:途上国農業政策において、収量モニタリング制度や気候適応支援策の設計根拠として示唆を与える。
📄 Abstract（原文）
Background In recent years, climate change has increasingly threatened the livelihoods of millions of smallholder coffee farmers. The study aims to assess the average coffee yields of smallholder farmers over the past decade to climate change. Methodology A cross-sectional mixed-methods research design was employed to comprehensively investigate the impacts of climate change on coffee yield and the adaptation strategies of smallholder farmers in Bunyangabu District. This design combined quantitative and qualitative approaches to provide a holistic understanding of the complex issues involved. Statistical analysis, including descriptive statistics and inferential tests (correlation, regression), was employed to identify patterns, trends, and relationships between variables. Results The findings showed substantial declines in coffee yields over the past decade. Among farmers producing 501–1000 kilograms a decade ago, 46.4% had fallen below 500 kilograms, while 64.7% of those producing 1001–1499 kilograms had declined to 501–1000 kilograms. The highest yield category (>1500 kilograms) had a retention rate of only 18.8%. Overall, 69.6% of farmers reported yield declines, while 22.7% reported improvements. Yield change was significantly associated with its direction (χ² = 392.00, p < .001, Cramer’s V = 1.00), with 77.3% reporting declines and 22.7% improvements. Climate variability was the most reported driver (71.2%; χ² = 70.296, p < .001), followed by pests and diseases (38.0%) and soil degradation (33.2%; χ² = 44.449, p < .001). Poor agronomic practices were not significant (χ² = 0.010, p = 0.920). Conclusion Climate variability was the predominant perceived driver of declining coffee yields among smallholder farmers in Bunyangabu District. Recommendation The government, through the Uganda Coffee Development Authority and Ministry of Agriculture, should establish a comprehensive coffee yield monitoring system that tracks annual productivity at the household level
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.51168/xgvr7d44first seen 2026-10-10 04:59:45
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