低所得国におけるエネルギー転換と経済成長：気候資金の役割
Energy transition and economic growth in low-income countries: the role of climate finance (原題)
Amin Kassab, Thomas Gries
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
輸入依存型の低所得国を対象に、気候資金と再生可能エネルギー転換が長期的経済成長に与える影響を理論モデルで分析。十分かつ安定した気候資金があれば転換は成長と厚生を加速させるが、他部門の投資をクラウドアウトする場合、短期・中期で所得が15〜20%減少しうる。資金不足は化石燃料需要と排出を増やすリバウンド効果を招く。
English
A theoretical model examines how climate finance and renewable energy transition affect long-run growth in import-dependent low-income countries. Sufficient, stable climate finance accelerates growth and welfare, but crowding out other investment can cut income 15-20% in the short-to-medium run. Insufficient finance triggers rebound effects, raising fossil demand and emissions.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本企業・投資家にとって直接の国内規制論点は薄いが、トランジション・ファイナンスの国際的な資金配分や、新興国での再エネ事業・クレジット創出機会を検討する際の理論的枠組みとして参考になる。
In the global GX context
Adds to global transition-finance scholarship by modeling how climate finance allocation shapes low-carbon growth and carbon lock-in in low-income economies, relevant to ISSB/TCFD-aligned capital flows and blended finance design.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:気候資金と成長の動学を理論的に整理する枠組みを提供する。
🏢実務担当者:新興国での再エネ投資・トランジション金融のリスクとリターン評価に示唆。
🏛政策担当者:気候資金の安定供給とクラウドアウト回避の設計が排出削減と成長に重要。
📄 Abstract（原文）
Abstract Although prices for renewable energy technologies have recently declined, many low-income countries still face barriers to deployment. The energy supply for their growing economies largely originates from the burning of fossil fuels. To avoid accelerating global greenhouse gas emissions, it is crucial that low-income countries enter a low-carbon growth path through the large-scale deployment of renewable energy. This is particularly relevant in countries that import fossil energy resources from global markets, where renewable energy deployment could be a tool for achieving independence and economic development. It can be beneficial in the short-run, for low-income countries with limited access to finance to rely on existing energy infrastructure. However, investment in renewable energy provides a long-run solution to preventing carbon lock-in by expanding existing infrastructure, such as pipelines or refineries. Therefore, we develop a theoretical model for long-run economic growth in import-dependent low-income countries. To produce renewable energy, a country must either attract international climate finance funds or substitute for other investments in the domestic economy to build a renewable energy capital stock. The results imply that sufficient and stable access to climate finance funds to transition to renewable energy accelerates long-run economic growth and welfare. Conversely, when investments in the energy transition crowds-out investment from other productive sectors in the economy, financing the energy transition can lead to income losses between 15 and 20% in the short- to medium-run. However, the energy transition does stimulate economic growth and welfare with an optimal allocation of capital in the long run. Furthermore, insufficient access to climate finance leads to rebound effects, accelerating demand for fossil energy and carbon emissions.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-026-00963-4first seen 2026-09-26 04:41:27
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