ウクライナにおけるグリーン経済移行：デカップリング、構造的断絶、ポスト社会主義的制約
Green Economy Transition in Ukraine: Decoupling, Structural Breaks, and Post-Socialist Constraints (原題)
Olha Hapieieva, N. Petrukha, S. Yaremchuk, Oleksandr Zhurba
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は2005〜2024年のウクライナのグリーン経済移行を、ポーランド・ルーマニア・ドイツと比較評価した。Tapioデカップリングモデルと構造変化指標付きOLS回帰を用い、経済成長とCO₂排出の間に弱いデカップリングしか達成されていないことを示す。2014年と2022年の紛争期に統計的に有意な構造的断絶を特定し、移行の制約が技術的断絶だけでなく社会主義的遺産の制度的・構造的要因にあると結論づける。
English
This paper evaluates Ukraine's green economy transition (2005–2024) against Poland, Romania, and Germany using Tapio decoupling and OLS regression with structural breaks. It finds only weak decoupling between growth and CO₂ emissions, with limited gains in energy efficiency and renewables. Significant structural breaks coincide with the 2014 and 2022 conflicts, and post-socialist institutional legacies constrain transformation. Policy implications include aligning reconstruction with EU standards, strengthening carbon pricing, and applying just transition frameworks.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本企業にとって直接の実務含意は薄いが、紛争・体制移行下での脱炭素ガバナンスや、EU基準への整合を通じた炭素価格・再建政策の設計は、日本のGX政策・移行金融の議論に比較材料を提供する。
In the global GX context
Adds to global transition scholarship by showing how post-socialist institutional legacies and conflict shocks shape decoupling outcomes, offering a comparator for EU accession-driven decarbonization and just transition frameworks relevant to ISSB/CSRD-aligned disclosure in emerging economies.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:デカップリング分析と構造変化検定を組み合わせた、移行経済の実証手法として参考になる。
🏢実務担当者:EU基準整合や炭素価格強化が再建・サプライチェーン再編の条件になり得る点を把握できる。
🏛政策担当者:紛争後再建をEU環境基準・炭素価格・公正移行枠組みに結びつける政策設計の示唆を得られる。
📄 Abstract（原文）
This paper evaluates green economy implementation in Ukraine during 2005–2024 and benchmarks its performance against Poland and Romania as post-socialist EU comparators and Germany as an advanced EU benchmark. Using data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the World Bank, and Eurostat, the study applies the Tapio decoupling model and OLS regression with structural-break indicators. The results indicate that Ukraine achieved only weak decoupling between economic growth and CO₂ emissions. Improvements in energy efficiency and renewable energy deployment remained limited relative to the selected comparator countries. The analysis identifies statistically significant structural breaks coinciding with the 2014 and 2022 conflict periods, indicating changes in the relationship between economic activity and CO₂ emissions. The findings indicate that the green transformation in Ukraine is not only limited by the technological disconnect, but also by institutional and structural legacies of the socialist legacy. The policy implications include the necessity to align reconstruction to the EU environmental standards, enhance the carbon pricing mechanism, and assist the industrial regions with the help of the well-developed just transition framework.Copyright© 2026 The Author(s). This article is distributed under the terms of the license CC-BY 4.0., which permits any further distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.Article’s History: Received 25th of July, 2026; Revised 31st of August, 2026; Accepted 17th of September, 2026; Available online: 30th of September, 2026. Published as research article in the Volume XXI, Fall, Issue 4(94), 2026.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
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