100%再生可能電力システムにおける価格形成者：多ゾーンモデルにおける柔軟性オプション、水力、混雑を通じたシャドウプライス形成
Price makers in 100 % renewable power systems: shadow price formation through flexibility options, hydropower, and congestion in a multi-zonal model (原題)
Luka Herc, Antun Pfeifer, Felipe Feijoo, Daniele Groppi, Neven Duić
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、クロアチア・スロベニア・ボスニア・ヘルツェゴビナの連系電力システムを対象に、多ゾーン型Highway to Renewable Energy Systemモデルを用いて、再生可能エネルギー大量導入下での電力価格形成を分析した。2050年までに太陽光・風力容量は大幅に増加し、限界価格決定主体は火力から柔軟性技術・国境間取引・ダム式水力へと構造的に移行する。一部システムでは年間約17%の時間でゼロまたは負の価格が発生し、平均価格は2050年に約20EUR/MWhまで低下する。柔軟性技術・蓄電・国境間調整メカニズムの重要性が高まることを示す。
English
Using a multi-zonal Highway to Renewable Energy System model for Croatia, Slovenia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina, this study analyzes electricity price formation under high renewable penetration. By 2050, solar and wind capacity rise 13.3-fold and 6.7-fold, shifting marginal pricing from thermal plants to flexibility technologies, cross-border exchanges, and dammed hydropower. Zero or negative price hours reach ~17% annually in some systems, with average prices falling to ~20 EUR/MWh, underscoring the growing role of flexibility, storage, and cross-border balancing.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本では再エネ大量導入に伴う電力価格の低下・負の価格・混雑管理が九州等で既に課題化しており、本論文の多ゾーン価格形成分析は、広域連系・柔軟性電源・蓄電の制度設計や投資判断に示唆を与える。SSBJや有報の気候関連開示においても、電力調達コストや市場リスクの定量的評価に資する。
In the global GX context
This paper contributes to global transition-finance and disclosure scholarship by quantifying how renewable-heavy interconnected systems shift price formation toward flexibility and congestion, informing TCFD/ISSB climate-risk assessments and power-market design under deep decarbonization.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:多ゾーン電力市場モデルにおけるシャドウプライスと柔軟性・水力・混雑の相互作用を定量化した実証例として参考になる。
🏢実務担当者:再エネ大量導入下での電力価格低下・負の価格リスクを踏まえ、PPAや蓄電・柔軟性投資の評価に活用できる。
🏛政策担当者:広域連系・容量市場・柔軟性メカニズムの設計において、価格形成の構造変化を考慮する必要性を示す。
📄 Abstract（原文）
The transition toward highly renewable energy systems requires large-scale deployment of new generation capacities while maintaining system reliability and economic efficiency. Since renewable resources are geographically unevenly distributed, cross-border electricity exchange and flexibility options gain in importance for balancing supply and demand. This research analyses the interaction between renewable generation deployment, cross-border electricity flows, and electricity price formation in interconnected energy systems. The analysis is performed using the Highway to Renewable Energy System model, which was expanded with a multizonal capability for this research. The analysed region comprises the interconnected systems of Croatia, Slovenia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina. The results show that decarbonization is primarily achieved through large-scale deployment of variable renewable generation. By 2050, total wind and solar capacity increases 11,23-fold compared with 2025 values. Specifically, solar and wind capacities increase 13,3-fold and 6,7-fold, respectively. Shadow-price analysis of the electricity-balance constraint indicates a structural shift in price formation. Thermal power plants dominate marginal pricing in the early years, whereas flexibility technologies and cross-border electricity exchanges increasingly determine prices in later periods. In some systems, dammed hydropower also becomes a price-setting technology by reflecting the opportunity cost of not generating during periods with higher electricity prices. The increasing share of renewable generation also leads to zero or negative price hours with approximately 17 % of annual hours in some systems. Average electricity prices decline to about 20 EUR/MWh by 2050. These findings highlight the growing importance of flexibility technologies, storage, and cross-border balancing mechanisms in highly renewable and interconnected electricity systems.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2026.122181first seen 2026-10-08 04:49:43
🔔 こうした論文の新着を逃したくない方は キーワードアラート に登録（無料・3キーワードまで）。
gxceed は公開メタデータに基づく研究支援データセットです。要約・翻訳・解説は AI 支援で生成されています。 最終的な解釈・検証は利用者が原典資料に基づいて行うことを前提とします。