石炭資源都市は産業・環境・炭素の高品質な協調を実現できるか：中国淮南市からの証拠
Can coal-resource cities achieve high-quality coordination of industry, environment, and carbon? Evidence from Huainan, China (原題)
Huijun Wu, Chang Su, Yu Zhang, Meng Li, Xiaomin Kong, Yanjun Liu, Liangmin Gao
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
中国の石炭資源都市・淮南市を対象に、産業構造・生態環境・炭素排出の3サブシステムを統合したIECネクサス枠組みを構築し、2000〜2022年の協調発展度を評価した。エントロピー重み法や結合調和度モデル、STIRPATモデル、灰色GM(1,1)モデルを用い、総合評価指数が0.28から0.79へ、結合調和度が0.552から0.832へ上昇したことを示す。シナリオ分析では、グリーン発展シナリオが2028年、低炭素・省エネシナリオが2030年頃に炭素ピークを迎えると予測される。
English
This study builds an Industrial Structure–Ecological Environment–Carbon Emissions (IEC) nexus framework to assess coordinated development in Huainan, a Chinese coal-resource city, from 2000 to 2022. Using entropy weighting, coupling coordination degree, obstacle analysis, STIRPAT, and Grey GM(1,1) models, it finds the comprehensive index rose from 0.28 to 0.79 and coordination from 0.552 to 0.832. Scenario analysis projects a carbon peak in 2028 under a Green Development Scenario and around 2030 under a Low-Carbon and Energy-Saving Scenario.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
中国の産炭地域における産業・環境・炭素の統合評価手法は、日本の石炭依存地域（北海道・九州など）の脱炭素移行計画や自治体GXビジョンの設計に参考となる。ただし開示制度や金融メカニズムには直接言及がなく、SSBJ・有報対応への示唆は限定的。
In the global GX context
This paper contributes to the global literature on just transition and resource-dependent regions, offering a replicable nexus framework for assessing industrial-environmental-carbon coordination. It is relevant to transition finance discussions in coal-dependent economies but does not engage with TCFD/ISSB disclosure frameworks directly.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:産業・環境・炭素の統合評価手法とシナリオ予測の応用例として参考になる。
🏢実務担当者:石炭依存地域に拠点を置く企業が、地域の脱炭素シナリオを自社の移行計画にどう反映するかの示唆を得られる。
🏛政策担当者:産炭地域の炭素ピーク時期と産業構造制約を踏まえた地域GX政策の設計に活用できる。
📄 Abstract（原文）
Coal-resource-based cities face the dual challenge of sustaining economic growth while mitigating environmental degradation and carbon emissions. Understanding the interactions among industrial structure, ecological environment, and carbon emissions is critical for sustainable urban transformation under China’s dual-carbon goals. This study develops an integrated Industrial Structure–Ecological Environment–Carbon Emissions (IEC) nexus framework to evaluate the coordinated development of these three subsystems in Huainan City, a representative coal-resource-based city, from 2000 to 2022. The entropy weight method, coupling coordination degree model, obstacle degree analysis, STIRPAT model, and Grey GM(1,1) model are used to assess historical evolution, identify key constraints, and project future trends. Results show that the IEC system’s comprehensive evaluation index increased from 0.28 to 0.79, while the coupling coordination degree rose from 0.552 to 0.832, reflecting a transition from barely coordinated to good coordinated development. Obstacle analysis shows that industrial structure remained the dominant constraint in 2022, while ecological environmental pressures increased markedly and became an increasingly important limiting factor. The ridge-STIRPAT model provides a satisfactory fit for carbon-emission projection, while scenario analysis further shows that the Green Development Scenario (GDS) achieves the earliest carbon peak in 2028, and the Low-Carbon and Energy-Saving Scenario (LCESS) offers a more balanced pathway between economic growth and carbon reduction, peaking around 2030. Projections indicate continued progress toward high-quality coordinated development. By integrating industrial structure, environmental quality, and carbon emissions into a unified analytical framework, this study advances nexus-based sustainability research and offers actionable insights for low-carbon transitions in resource-dependent cities.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.indic.2026.101541first seen 2026-09-29 05:02:51
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