1.5℃移行における企業の役割：ステークホルダー参加型シナリオ分析

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:企業を政策・制度に形作られるガバナンス主体として捉えるシナリオ手法の枠組みを提供する。

🏢実務担当者:規制・市場インセンティブ・参加型手法の組み合わせが企業関与の鍵となる点を、移行計画や政策エンゲージメント設計に活用できる。

🏛政策担当者:国家主導・グローバル調整型の有効性と政治的困難、ハイブリッド型の支持を踏まえ、政策の実現可能性と整合性設計を検討すべき。

Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C requires profound transformations of production and consumption systems, yet the role of businesses in enabling such transitions remains insufficiently addressed in scenario-based sustainability research. Existing scenarios often conceptualize firms as implementers of mitigation measures rather than governance actors shaped by policy, institutions, and societal expectations. This article addresses this gap by examining stakeholder assessments of business-related climate policies across alternative governance configurations for 1.5 °C-aligned futures. The study employs a three-stage methodology combining a literature review, a multi-country Policy Delphi, and a scenario analysis. The literature review identified conceptual gaps and informed the analytical framework. The Policy Delphi elicited expert assessments of the desirability, feasibility, barriers, and enabling conditions of business-related climate policies in Germany, Spain, Hungary, Latvia, and Sweden. We synthesize these insights into four exploratory governance scenarios structured along two dimensions: state intervention versus voluntarism, and local versus global governance. The results reveal substantial variation across governance configurations and national contexts. Stakeholders in the study widely perceived state-led and globally coordinated approaches as effective but politically and institutionally challenging, while more voluntary or decentralized approaches were seen as politically feasible but insufficient to achieve systemic change. Across scenarios, financial arrangements, institutional credibility, and policy coherence emerge as critical enablers of business engagement. Stakeholders consistently favor hybrid governance arrangements that combine regulation, market incentives, and participatory approaches. By integrating stakeholder-informed assessments of feasibility and desirability into scenario development, the article advances scenario-based transition research and provides a governance framework for evaluating business roles in 1.5 °C-aligned sustainability transitions.

• openalex https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.33980642first seen 2026-10-10 05:02:05