インドにおける石油危機・エネルギー安全保障・気候変動：地政学的石油ショックの実証分析
Oil Crisis, Energy Security And Climate Change In India: An Empirical Analysis Of Geopolitical Oil Shocks (原題)
Dr.L.Johncy
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
インドを対象に、地政学的な原油価格ショックが輸入依存度・エネルギー消費・経済成長・CO2排出にどう波及するかを1990〜2024年の年次データで検証する実証研究。ARDL bounds検定と誤差修正モデル、構造変化分析を用い、湾岸戦争やロシア・ウクライナ紛争等の局面を組み込む。輸入依存が脆弱性を高める一方、再エネ・EV・バイオ燃料・省エネ・石油備蓄がエネルギー安全保障と気候目標を同時に強めうると示唆する。
English
An empirical study of how geopolitical crude-oil price shocks transmit to India's import dependence, energy consumption, growth and CO2 emissions using 1990–2024 annual data. It applies ARDL bounds testing, an error-correction model and structural-break analysis covering episodes from the 1991 Gulf War to the Russia–Ukraine conflict. It expects to show that oil-import dependence raises vulnerability, while renewables, e-mobility, biofuels, efficiency and strategic reserves can jointly strengthen energy security and climate goals.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本は中東依存度が高く、原油価格ショックと安全保障の連動は対岸の課題ではない。インドの輸入依存と再エネ・EV・備蓄による緩和策は、日本のエネルギー安全保障とGX投資判断の比較材料になる。
In the global GX context
Adds an emerging-economy, oil-import-dependent perspective to the global energy-transition literature, linking geopolitical shocks to both energy security and decarbonization. Relevant to transition-finance debates on how fossil-fuel import exposure shapes national decarbonization pathways.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides an ARDL/ECM template for modelling oil-shock transmission to emissions in an import-dependent economy.
🏢実務担当者:Useful for scenario thinking on oil-price volatility exposure and diversification options such as renewables, EV and efficiency.
🏛政策担当者:Supports arguments for strategic petroleum reserves and diversification as dual-purpose energy-security and climate measures.
📄 Abstract（原文）
India's rapid economic growth has been accompanied by a substantial increase in energy demand and dependence on imported crude oil. This dependence exposes the Indian economy to international oil-price volatility arising from geopolitical conflicts, supply disruptions and global economic crises. At the same time, continued dependence on fossil fuels creates challenges for India's climate commitments and long-term energy transition. This study empirically examines the relationship between geopolitical oil shocks, energy security and climate change in India. The analysis focuses on the transmission of international crude oil-price shocks to India's oil import dependence, energy consumption, economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions. Annual data covering the period 1990–2024 are proposed to be analysed using descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, unit-root tests, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds-testing approach and an Error Correction Model (ECM). Structural-break analysis is incorporated to capture major episodes such as the 1991 Gulf War, the 2008 global financial crisis, the 2014–2016 oil-price collapse, the COVID-19 shock and the Russia–Ukraine conflict. The study conceptualises energy security through import dependence, oil-price volatility and energy diversification, while climate change is represented through CO₂ emissions and carbon intensity. The empirical framework is designed to identify both short-run and long-run relationships between geopolitical oil shocks, energy security and environmental outcomes. The study is expected to demonstrate that India's high dependence on imported oil increases vulnerability to external shocks, while diversification toward renewable energy, electric mobility, biofuels, energy efficiency and strategic petroleum reserves can simultaneously strengthen energy security and support climate objectives.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22304353first seen 2026-09-25 04:36:34 · last seen 2026-09-25 04:38:23
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