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Technology interactions reshape the economics of China's coal power decarbonization

技術間相互作用が中国の石炭火力脱炭素化の経済性を変える (AI 翻訳)

Yun-Long Zhang, Jia-Ning Kang, Xiaoming Kan, Lan-Cui Liu, Zhimin Huang, Song Peng, Biying Yu, Yi-Ming Wei

arXivプレプリント2026-08-11#エネルギー転換Origin: CN経営インパクト: コスト削減対象セクター: power
原典: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.11404
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🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

中国の1,885基の石炭火力発電所を対象に、省エネ、バイオマス混焼、炭素回収の技術間相互作用を考慮した最適化フレームワークを開発。技術間相互作用により、個別対策の費用と排出削減量が変化し、最適な技術ポートフォリオと限界削減費用曲線が変わることが示された。約12億トンのCO2を負の限界費用で削減可能で、カーボンニュートラル達成には限界削減費用が56ドル/トン必要。深い削減ほどバイオマス混焼、炭素回収へと最適技術が移行し、バイオマス+CCSでネット・ネガティブが可能。

English

An interaction-aware optimization framework for 1,885 Chinese coal plants shows that technology interactions alter mitigation costs and emission reductions, shifting cost-optimal portfolios from energy conservation to biomass co-firing and carbon capture. About 1.2 Gt CO2/yr can be mitigated at negative marginal cost; carbon neutrality requires $56/tCO2. Biomass with CCS enables net-negative emissions.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本の石炭火力政策（高効率化・アンモニア混焼・CCS）にも示唆。技術間の相互作用を考慮した最適化は、日本の火力発電所のリプレースやCCS導入判断に有用。

In the global GX context

Provides a rigorous method for evaluating coal power decarbonization portfolios, relevant to global climate policy and transition finance. Highlights the importance of technology interactions in cost-effective mitigation strategies.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Methodological contribution: interaction-aware optimization for coal fleet decarbonization.

🏢実務担当者:Insights for retrofit investment decisions in coal power plants.

🏛政策担当者:Informs climate policy design and infrastructure planning for coal phase-down.

📄 Abstract（原文）

Decarbonizing existing coal-fired power plants can contribute to near-term climate mitigation, but identifying cost-effective retrofit strategies is complicated by interactions among mitigation technologies. Here we develop an interaction-aware optimization framework that jointly evaluates energy conservation, biomass co-firing, and carbon capture across 1,885 coal-fired power plants in China while accounting for plant heterogeneity and shared biomass and CO2 storage resources. We find that technology interactions alter both mitigation costs and the emission reductions attributable to individual measures, thereby changing cost-optimal technology portfolios and marginal abatement cost curve at the fleet level. Approximately 1.2 Gt CO2 yr-1 can be mitigated at negative marginal cost, while reaching carbon neutrality requires a marginal abatement cost of US$56 t CO2-1. Progressively deeper mitigation shifts the cost-optimal portfolio from energy conservation toward biomass co-firing and ultimately carbon capture, with biomass combined with carbon capture enabling net-negative emissions. Explicitly accounting for interactions among mitigation technologies therefore provides a more consistent basis for evaluating coal-power decarbonization and coordinating retrofit investment, infrastructure development, and climate policy.

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