Climate Uncertainty, Nonlinear Transition Risk, and Macroeconomic Instability: A Geometric Manifold Approach

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🔬研究者:Provides a novel methodological framework combining geometry and econometrics for climate-macro analysis, with robust empirical evidence on threshold effects.

🏢実務担当者:Highlights the importance of monitoring climate policy uncertainty as a risk factor in transition planning and scenario analysis.

🏛政策担当者:Offers quantitative evidence that policy credibility and gradualism are crucial to avoid tipping points and productivity losses.

This paper examines the nexus between climate policy uncertainty, green transition dynamics, and macroeconomic productivity through a unified theoretical and empirical framework. Drawing on concepts from differential geometry, catastrophe theory, and nonlinear macroeconomics, we model the climate-macro system as a dynamic manifold in which observer-dependent climate expectations and curvature in economic state space interact to generate regime shifts and potential tipping points. The theoretical contribution extends existing integrated assessment and DSGE climate models by introducing a conceptual metric tensor that captures asymmetric information and heterogeneous beliefs among economic agents. We derive analytical conditions for equilibrium stability, bifurcation thresholds, and climate-induced singularities. Empirically, using an unbalanced panel of 100 countries over 1995–2025, we combine nonlinear panel threshold regression, Markov-switching VAR, quantile connectedness analysis, and dynamic factor-geometric estimation to identify the causal pathways through which climate policy uncertainty depresses total factor productivity growth. Results reveal a statistically and economically significant threshold effect: the negative impact of carbon intensity on productivity more than doubles when climate policy uncertainty exceeds an estimated threshold of 48.3 index points. Quantile connectedness analysis further documents pronounced tail-risk spillovers at the lower and upper quantiles, suggesting that green transition shocks propagate nonlinearly across countries and sectors. Robustness checks using system-GMM, two-stage least squares with geopolitical risk instruments, and sub-period analysis confirm the stability of the main findings. The analysis has concrete policy implications for the design of credible and gradual climate transition pathways, particularly for developing and emerging economies.

• openalex https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202607.1883.v1first seen 2026-08-16 04:49:46