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化石炭素循環の閉鎖：地質学的ネットゼロ協定（GNZ Pact）

Closing the fossil carbon cycle: the Geological Net Zero Pact (FR : Boucler le cycle du carbone fossile : le pacte de Neutralité Géologique en Carbone) (原題)

Portolano, Patrick

Zenodoプレプリント2026-11-07#炭素会計対象セクター: cross_sector
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.24024055
原典: https://zenodo.org/records/24024055
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🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

気候破壊の主因は、地質貯留層に数百万年かけて蓄積された炭素が自然循環で相殺できない速度で大気・海洋・生物圏へ移行していることにある。本稿はCOP26で提唱された「地質学的ネットゼロ（GNZ）」原則を整理し、化石炭素の採掘量を地圏への永続的かつ検証可能な炭素回帰で均衡させる会計ルールを提示する。COP26〜COP31で1.5℃整合の炭素予算が420億→170億トンCO₂に縮小した経緯を踏まえ、上からの規制ではなく炭素関係者間の協定として、サプライチェーン単位の段階的実施、5つのコミットメント、会計・経済モデル、大気中CO₂除去や化石燃料移行ロードマップとの整合、実証事業ベースの行動計画を示す。

English

Climate disruption stems from transferring fossil carbon from geological reservoirs to atmosphere, ocean and biosphere faster than natural cycles can offset. This working paper consolidates the Geological Net Zero (GNZ) principle proposed for COP26, deriving an accounting rule that every fossil carbon extraction must be balanced by permanent, verified return of carbon to the geosphere. It reviews the shrinking 1.5°C carbon budget (420→170 GtCO2 between COP26 and COP31) and proposes a GNZ Pact: segment-by-segment supply-chain implementation, five commitments, an induced accounting and economic model, alignment with atmospheric CO2 removal and fossil transition roadmaps, and a demonstrator-based action plan.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

SSBJ・有報開示やScope 3会計が「排出削減」を軸とする一方、本稿は「採掘した化石炭素の地圏回帰」という別軸の会計ルールを提示する。日本の排出量取引制度（GX-ETS）やトランジション・ファイナンスの議論に、残余排出と永久除去の扱いを再考する材料を提供する。

In the global GX context

The GNZ Pact proposes a complementary accounting layer to TCFD/ISSB/CSRD disclosure: balancing fossil extraction with verified permanent carbon return, which speaks directly to net-zero claims, residual emissions and durable CDR accounting under global frameworks. It offers a governance-by-pact alternative to top-down regulation for the post-COP31 transition-finance debate.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:A formal accounting rule linking fossil extraction to permanent geological carbon return, useful for net-zero and CDR accounting research.

🏢実務担当者:Signals a possible future expectation that fossil-fuel users demonstrate verified permanent carbon return, relevant to net-zero target design and supply-chain commitments.

🏛政策担当者:Offers a pact-based, segment-by-segment governance model for aligning fossil extraction with 1.5°C carbon budgets.

📄 Abstract（原文）

Closing the fossil carbon cycle: the Geological Net Zero Pact. Working version 0.9 Climate disruption results first of all from the transfer of carbon accumulated over millions of years in geological reservoirs into the atmosphere, the ocean and the biosphere, at a pace that natural cycles cannot offset. The Geological Net Zero (GNZ) principle was proposed for COP26 in 2021 and has since been consolidated in the scientific literature. It draws an accounting rule from this: any extraction of fossil carbon must be balanced by a permanent and verified return of carbon to the geosphere. Between COP26 and COP31, the carbon budget compatible with 1.5 °C shrank from 420 to 170 billion tonnes of CO₂. This document reviews that period and explains why a pact between carbon actors is preferable to a resolution imposed from above. It then presents the GNZ Pact: implementation by segments of supply chains, spreading until a critical threshold is reached; its parties and its five commitments; its accounting and the economic model it induces; how it fits with atmospheric CO₂ removal and with fossil fuel transition roadmaps. It ends with a flexible action plan based on demonstrators and verifiable commitments. Contents of this record Founding article, French and English versions Perspective, condensed version for journal submission, French and English versions Status. Working version 0.9, released on the occasion of COP31 (Antalya, 9–20 November 2026) and subject to revision; version 1.0 is expected in December 2026. This is a scientific and public-policy proposal open for discussion. It does not refer to an adopted treaty or an existing certification scheme, and it does not reflect the position of any organisation or person cited. Website: geologicalnetzero.org

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