「双炭」目標下における中国南部カルスト沿岸移行帯の炭素貯留動態と多シナリオ国土規制
Carbon Storage Dynamics and Multi-Scenario Territorial Regulation in South China’s Karst-Coastal Transition Zones Under the “Dual Carbon” Target (原題)
Haixuan Geng, Ling Xie, Yu Jiang, Yanmei Ma, Shanshan Wen, Chaoshu Chen
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
中国南部カルスト地域を対象に、2000〜2025年の土地利用データを用いて炭素貯留量の変動とその駆動要因を分析した研究。PLUSとInVESTモデルを結合し、2030年・2035年の3つの土地利用シナリオをシミュレーション。急傾斜地保護シナリオでは自然発展シナリオ比で炭素貯留が大幅に増加し、石漠化対策と低炭素土地利用の両立可能性を示す。
English
Using 2000-2025 land-use data, this study analyzes carbon-stock dynamics and drivers in South China's karst-coastal zones. Coupling PLUS and InVEST models, it simulates three land-management scenarios for 2030 and 2035. A steep-slope protection scenario raises carbon stock substantially over natural development, showing synergies between desertification control and low-carbon land use.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
中国の「双炭」目標と国土空間計画の接続事例であり、日本のSSBJ・有報開示とは直接関係しないが、土地利用規制と炭素貯留を統合する政策設計の参考になる。自治体の脱炭素計画や森林・農地の炭素管理に関心を持つ読者に有用。
In the global GX context
This contributes to the global literature on land-use-based carbon accounting and nature-based climate solutions, relevant to emerging frameworks like TNFD and SBTN that extend disclosure beyond corporate GHG inventories to land and ecosystem impacts. It offers a modeling template for integrating spatial planning with carbon-stock targets.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:土地利用変化と炭素貯留の統合モデリング手法(PLUS+InVEST)の応用例として参考になる。
🏢実務担当者:森林・農地を含む土地資産を持つ企業が、自然資本・生物多様性開示(TNFD)を検討する際の空間分析視点を提供する。
🏛政策担当者:国土空間計画と炭素貯留目標を統合するシナリオ設計の手法として、自治体の脱炭素計画策定に示唆を与える。
📄 Abstract（原文）
In the context of low-carbon development targets, urban expansion within the karst ecoregions of southern China has intensified land-use-related carbon-stock losses, which highlights the necessity of scientific and sustainable land-use management strategies. Using multi-temporal land-use datasts spanning six periods from 2000 to 2025, this study integrates carbon-stock accounting and land-use transition-matrix analysis. Multicollinearity testing and spatial autocorrelation analysis are employed to reveal the driving mechanisms behind carbon-stock variations. Based on standardized beta coefficients (β), all driving factors are hierarchically classified into primary dominant factors, secondary constraint factors, and tertiary disturbance factors according to their regulatory intensity, and further grouped into topographic, ecological, and socioeconomic categories. On this basis, three differentiated land-management scenarios are constructed. By coupling the PLUS and InVEST models, this study simulates regional carbon-stock conditions for 2030 and 2035. The results show that regional carbon-stock exhibits a fluctuating pattern: it decreased from 2000 to 2005, rose continuously during 2005–2015 to reach its peak in 2015, and then declined persistently from 2015 to 2025. Spatially, obvious zonal differentiation can be observed: the northwestern mountainous areas maintain high carbon-stock levels, whereas southern coastal towns experience severe carbon-stock degradation. Topographic factors dominate regional carbon-stock dynamics; ecological factors exert critical buffering effects; human-induced land-use activities act as the secondary driver for carbon-stock loss. The conversion of farmland and woodland to construction land represents the major contributor to regional carbon-stock reduction. Under the “2035 Steep-slope Carbon-stock Protection Scenario”, the total regional carbon-stock increases by 1441.69 million tonnes relative to the “2035 Natural Development Scenario”. This scenario achieves the coordinated advancement of rocky desertification control and sustainable land use, facilitates synergistic low-carbon improvement and land-system sustainability, and provides practical references for low-carbon land governance in similar karst regions worldwide.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.3390/land15091747first seen 2026-09-23 05:05:55
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