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西欧以外の世界エネルギー転移:非西欧10カ国の実用的ストックテイク

World Energy Transition outside the West: A pragmatic stocktake of ten non-Western countries (原題)

Jean‐Michel Glachant, Ramakrishnan Atreya

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)ジャーナル2026-09-22#エネルギー転換Origin: Global経営インパクト: 調達リスク対象セクター: cross_sector
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.22894103
原典: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22894103

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本論文は、中国・インド・インドネシア・南アフリカ・ナイジェリア・ケニア・サウジアラビア・ブラジル・チリ・トルコの10カ国を対象に、2013〜2024年のエネルギー転移の実態を21指標で測定した。太陽光・風力の成長速度、太陽光パネル・風車・リチウムイオン電池の製造とEV普及、銅・ニッケル・コバルト・リチウムの採掘・精錬を3段階で分析。10カ国中9カ国で転移は実在し、複数の経路をたどることを示す。

English

This paper measures the actual energy transition in ten non-Western countries (China, India, Indonesia, South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Chile, Türkiye) over 2013–2024 using 21 indicators across three steps: solar/wind growth vs. fossil fuels, downstream manufacturing and EV adoption, and upstream mining/refining of copper, nickel, cobalt, and lithium. It finds the transition is real and measurable in nine of ten countries, following several distinct paths, though data remain thin outside China and India.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本企業が新興国で再生可能エネルギー事業やEV・電池サプライチェーンを展開する際、各国の実態データと多様な転移経路を把握する基礎資料となる。SSBJやScope3開示で新興国サプライヤーの脱炭素進捗を評価する際にも有用。

In the global GX context

Provides empirical evidence on non-Western transition pathways, relevant for global investors and disclosure frameworks (ISSB, TCFD) assessing transition risk and opportunity in emerging markets. Highlights data gaps that complicate Scope 3 and country-level transition assessments outside China and India.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:非西欧諸国のエネルギー転移を多指標で比較する実証的枠組みを提供。

🏢実務担当者:新興国での再生可能エネルギー調達やEV・電池サプライチェーン戦略の判断材料。

🏛政策担当者:新興国支援や技術協力の優先順位を検討する際のエビデンス。

📄 Abstract(原文)

This paper asks whether an energy transition is underway outside the West, and answers pragmatically rather than by starting from pledges, targets or commitments. It measures what ten non-Western countries, China, India, Indonesia, South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Chile and Türkiye, together holding roughly half the world's population, have actually built over the decade 2013 to 2024: new sources of primary energy, the domestic manufacturing and adoption of the equipment that turns those sources into useful electricity, and the mining and refining of the minerals that equipment requires. The analysis is organised in three steps and 21 indicators. Step one measures the speed of growth in solar and wind relative to fossil fuels, and the intensity of that growth per inhabitant, per unit of GDP and as a share of installed capacity. Step two follows the transition downstream into the production of solar modules, wind turbines and lithium-ion batteries, and the uptake of electric two- and three-wheelers and electric cars. Step three goes upstream to the mining and refining of copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium. The paper finds that the transition is real and measurable in nine of the ten countries, that it follows several distinct paths rather than one, and that the underlying data remain thin outside China and India.

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