インドネシアにおける森林・土地火災防止のための気象改変実施の10年間評価と炭素排出削減への貢献
Decadal evaluation of the weather modification implementations to prevent forest and land fires and its contribution to reducing carbon emissions in Indonesia (原題)
Budi Harsoyo, Rizaldi Boer, Edvin Aldrian, Lailan Syaufina, M. Bayu Rizky Prayoga
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
インドネシアの泥炭地火災を予防する気象改変技術（WMT）を2016〜2025年について評価。Difference-in-Differences法により、スマトラでホットスポット約80%、焼失面積約71%が減少し、2023年エルニーニョ時には炭素排出が最大94%削減されたと推定。費用便益比は2019年60、2023年173と高く、NDCやFOLU Net Sink 2030目標に資する費用対効果の高い対策と結論づける。
English
This study evaluates preventive Weather Modification Technology (WMT) for peatland fire prevention in Indonesia over 2016–2025. Using Difference-in-Differences, hotspots fell ~80% in Sumatra and ~69% in Kalimantan, with burned area down ~71% and ~68%; carbon emissions during the 2023 El Niño dropped up to 94% versus 2015. Benefit-Cost Ratios of 60 (2019) and 173 (2023) indicate strong cost-efficiency, supporting Indonesia's NDC and FOLU Net Sink 2030 targets.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本企業にとっては、東南アジアのサプライチェーン上流における森林火災・泥炭地由来排出リスクの評価や、自然資本・生物多様性開示（TNFD）文脈での参考になる。国内のGX政策との直接連動は薄い。
In the global GX context
Adds empirical evidence on nature-based and technological fire-prevention as a mitigation lever in tropical peatlands, relevant to global carbon accounting of land-use emissions and to voluntary/NDC-linked crediting debates. It complements TCFD/ISSB physical-risk and nature (TNFD) disclosure discussions for supply chains exposed to Southeast Asian land-use risk.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a DiD-based, uncertainty-quantified evaluation of weather modification as a preventive fire and emissions-reduction intervention in tropical peatlands.
🏢実務担当者:Useful for assessing land-use and fire-related emissions risk in Southeast Asian supply chains and for nature/climate disclosure narratives.
🏛政策担当者:Offers cost-benefit evidence supporting preventive WMT as a policy tool for NDC and FOLU Net Sink 2030 delivery.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Forest and land fires in Indonesia are a major source of greenhouse gas emissions, particularly from peatland ecosystems in Sumatra and Kalimantan. Since 2016, Weather Modification Technology (WMT) has shifted from a curative fire-suppression approach to a preventive strategy focused on peatland rewetting. This study evaluates the effectiveness, environmental benefits, and economic efficiency of preventive WMT during 2016–2025 by analyzing changes in hotspot occurrence, burned area, carbon emissions using the Difference-in-Differences (DiD) method, alongside statistical uncertainty analysis, and an economic valuation using the Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR) method. The results show that hotspot occurrence decreased by 80.0–80.4% in Sumatra and 69.1–69.5% in Kalimantan, while burned area declined by 70.8–71.4% and 67.7–68.3%, respectively, compared with the 2006–2015 period. During the 2023 El Nino event, carbon emissions were reduced by 85.0–94.2% in Sumatra and 71.3–80.5% in Kalimantan relative to 2015. Economic valuation produced Benefit-to-Cost Ratios (BCRs) of 60 (95% CI: 57–65) in 2019 and 173 (95% CI: 136–209) in 2023, indicating substantial economic benefits. These findings demonstrate that preventive WMT is an effective and cost-efficient component of integrated forest and land fire management and can support Indonesia's climate mitigation efforts, including the achievement of its Enhanced Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and FOLU Net Sink 2030 targets.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.31018/jans.v18i3.7777first seen 2026-10-08 04:51:05
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