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グリーン水素生産における余剰電力活用型風力発電と専用風力発電の比較：コロンビア・ラグアヒラにおける技術経済比較

Curtailment-driven vs. dedicated wind farms for green hydrogen production: a techno-economic comparison in La Guajira, Colombia (原題)

Ortega, Gerson Rivera, Bermudez, Lorena Suarez, Camargo, Luis Ramirez, Biobased Economy, Integr. of Intermittent Renewable Energy

プレプリント2026#水素Origin: Global経営インパクト: コスト削減対象セクター: power
原典: https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/491187

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

コロンビア・ラグアヒラを対象に、余剰風力電力活用型と専用風力発電によるグリーン水素生産を20年分の気象データで技術経済比較した。余剰電力をゼロコストと仮定するとLCOHは€1.5〜2.2/kgと魅力的だが、LCOEで評価すると€3.6〜3.9/kgに上昇し便益は負に転じる。専用風力（314MW）はLCOH €2.6/kgでより競争力があり、余剰電力型は現実的仮定下では政策支援が必要と結論づける。

English

This study compares curtailment-driven and dedicated wind farms for green hydrogen in La Guajira, Colombia, using 20 years of hourly ERA5 data. Assuming zero-cost surplus electricity yields LCOH of €1.5–2.2/kg, but pricing electricity at LCOE raises it to €3.6–3.9/kg and turns benefits negative. A dedicated 314 MW wind farm is more competitive at €2.6/kg, suggesting curtailment-based hydrogen needs policy support under realistic assumptions.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本では再エネ余剰電力の活用と水素導入がGX政策の焦点であり、出力抑制下での水素製造コスト評価は国内の再エネ大量導入・水素戦略の議論に示唆を与える。特に電力価格評価の有無で経済性が大きく変わる点は、日本での制度設計や事業性評価に参考となる。

In the global GX context

This paper contributes to global debates on green hydrogen economics by highlighting the sensitivity of curtailment-based hydrogen to electricity pricing assumptions. It offers empirical evidence from an emerging market, relevant to international discussions on renewable integration, hydrogen strategy, and policy support mechanisms under frameworks like the EU's RFNBO and global hydrogen standards.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:余剰電力由来水素の経済性評価における電力価格仮定の重要性と、専用再エネとの比較手法を提供する。

🏢実務担当者:再エネ余剰電力を使った水素事業の採算性は電力コスト次第であり、専用電源の検討も併せて行うべきと示唆。

🏛政策担当者:余剰電力由来水素の普及には、電力価格やCAPEX支援などの政策設計が不可欠であることを示す。

📄 Abstract（原文）

Existing research on hydrogen production from wind curtailment often assumes zero-cost curtailed electricity, uses single-year weather datasets, and rarely compares performance against dedicated wind farms under consistent techno-economic frameworks. We address these gaps through a case study in La Guajira, Colombia, where hydrogen's role in mitigating curtailment is underexplored. We assess wind development and curtailment scenarios derived from regional grid connection requests and transmission plans, totalling 8,445 MW of wind capacity, using 20 years of hourly ERA5 data to capture interannual variability. Assuming surplus electricity is available at zero cost, the benefit-maximising configurations yield an LCOH of €1.5–€2.2/kg, annualised benefits of €13.8–€178 M/y and 0.18–1.3 MtCO₂/y avoided. When electricity is priced at its LCOE, the LCOH of these configurations rises to €3.6–€3.9/kg, up to 2.4 times the zero-cost values, and annualised benefits turn negative. A dedicated wind farm of 314 MW is then more competitive, with an LCOH of €2.6/kg, annualised benefits of €10.9 M/y and 0.28 MtCO₂/y avoided. This stems from its 49% capacity factor and power available over far more hours, improving electrolyser utilisation. Once electricity is priced, curtailment-driven production becomes cost-effective only at an electrolyser CAPEX of €265/kW, a hydrogen price of €4/kg, or exceptionally high wind (P90). Interannual variability reaches ±48% relative to the P50 for curtailment-driven hydrogen, compared with ±29% for a dedicated wind farm. Overall, hydrogen from curtailed electricity can complement wind development in La Guajira, but its cost-effectiveness is limited under realistic assumptions, requiring policy support.

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