特許から試作へ：核融合への移行に関する予備的評価

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:核融合の代替概念（IEC）の技術的・経済的評価手法と、実験移行のための管理パラメータを学べる。

🏢実務担当者:革新的エネルギー技術の初期事業化評価における段階的リスク管理とコストモデルの例として参考になる。

🏛政策担当者:核融合のような長期・高リスク技術への公的支援を検討する際の、予備的費用便益評価の枠組みを提供する。

In the context of resource scarcity concerns that have triggered the precautionary principle in the EU, the zeitgeist of ongoing conflicts forcefully reaffirms the criticality of energy sources for the sustainability of human civilization. The expansion of AI/IT consumption, while raising the prospect of an information catastrophe, is unexpectedly reduced to a collateral and secondary problem in view of the advent of quantum computing. Yet awareness is growing about the limitations of using renewables alone without other sources suitable for the base load and primary regulation, e.g. by hydro-solar-pumping or any other energy storage. The promises of the great ITER project are fading as a result of constant program revisions. But the idea of a global focus on research into new sources, such as LENRs (Low Energy Nuclear Reaction), seems to have failed to gain traction mainly for the implicit financial and technological risks. And sometimes LENRs even appears to be marginalised, opposed and ostracized. In such framework this proposed study will present a preliminary theoretical assessment of the TAP (Thermonuclear Acceleration Process) concept, a proposed nuclear fusion system based on Inertial Electrostatic Confinement (IEC). The objective of the work is not to demonstrate operational feasibility but to identify the principal organisational, economics, physical/technological parameters and criticalities, as well as operational conditions necessary to guide future experimental investigations. Above all, this paper presents, based on the average fixed quota (development, design, management) of the general cost structure, a preliminary technical and economic assessment of the TAP described in Italian Patent No. 102017000039848. The main purpose of the present study is then to identify the principal managerial parameters required for the development of an initial experimental prototype and to provide a rough estimate of the resources (the relevance of which will be described in the matrix structure necessary to set-up an experimental competent team to verify the underlying fusion mechanism). The TAP concept proposes the use of arrays of microscopic conductive cavities embedded in an insulating structure and maintained at high electrostatic potential. A surrounding annular chamber containing a deuterium–tritium (D-T) gas mixture is ionized through electrical discharge, producing ions that are accelerated toward the cavities. Due to the geometry of the electrostatic field near the cavity structures, ions are expected to concentrate in small volumes, so increasing local density and collision probability. This mechanism, described as electrostatic cavity focusing, is intended to enhance the probability of fusion reactions within a micro-structured confinement environment. The study will develop an initial management and cost-time model-plan for the transition from patent concept to experimental implementation. Based on a project breakdown into seven principal phases—including conceptual development, engineering design, experimental apparatus construction, and testing—the total estimated project cost is approximately 2.94 million euros (excluding financial and general costs). Sensitivity and risk analysis indicates a possible range between approximately 2.45 and 4.41 million euros (2020 prices). The estimated project duration will be 36 months, structured into sequential phases with predefined technical milestones intended to limit financial and technical risk. The manpower estimate is derived from the engineering design phase, requiring approximately 6300 professional hours at an indicative average rate of 70 € per hour, corresponding to about 441 k€ for the initial project development stage. The project organization assumes a multidisciplinary team operating under the coordination of a dedicated project manager. Because the TAP concept involves innovative and largely unexplored electrostatic fusion configurations, the proposed development program incorporates stage-gated verification points to reduce technical and financial risk during experimental validation. The initial assessment, prepared in September 2020, provides a preliminary framework for planning experimental investigation and defining the technological pathway required to evaluate the TAP fusion concept. The planned review, in addition to focusing on the analysis of the technological criticalities of 30 KeV D-T ions, will also try to address the choice of materials and processing techniques involving micro/nanotechnologies requiring very tight processing tolerances and the identification of variables to be optimized.

• openalex https://doi.org/10.59973/ipil.401first seen 2026-10-05 05:19:38