Results of the Assessment of Thermodynamically Stable Carbon Sequestration with Persistence of No Less Than 500 Years: Reasonable Assurance and Financial Risk Reduction

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🔬研究者:Provides a methodology for combining instrumental verification with Bayesian uncertainty assessment to substantiate permanence claims in CDR.

🏢実務担当者:Shows how high data quality (DQS1) can reduce financial risk and enable premium pricing for carbon removal projects.

🏛政策担当者:Illustrates how regulatory capital incentives can be aligned with climate asset quality, potentially informing banking supervision frameworks.

Results of the Assessment of Thermodynamically Stable Carbon Sequestration with Persistence of No Less Than 500 Years: Reasonable Assurance and Financial Risk Reduction Creators: V.M. Kitaykin, D.B. Karimova Resource Type: Report / Technical Report Publication Date: July 26, 2026 Language: English Key words: #permanent carbon removal (CDR), #financial climate asset, DQS 1, reasonable assurance, #UMK100, #hydropyrolysis Objective of the Study To obtain verifiable quantitative results of the calculation of the climate effect of carbon sequestration resulting from the thermochemical conversion of organic waste (primarily of agricultural origin) by hydropyrolysis at the GOU-100 unit. Methodology The calculation was performed in accordance with the IPCC methodology (2019 Refinement, Volume 4, Appendix 4) using a three-stage data quality assessment procedure: 1) normative validation (gatekeeper); 2) quantitative assessment of metrological uncertainty; 3) calculation of the aggregated expert confidence level (γ_conf_agg) using Bayesian updating and syndicated calibration of risk weights (GOST R 58771-2019). Results of the project scenario (Tier 3) were obtained using instrumental measurements (XRD, FTIR, elemental analysis) and compared with the default coefficients (Tier 1) of the IPCC (2019). Obtained Results 1. The GOU-100 unit, which generates CMC100 (Carbon-Mineral Composite), is designed in a mobile configuration, to eliminate and/or minimize GHG emissions at all stages of the CMC100 life cycle, including those from transportation. 2. The physicochemical characteristics of the carbon phase in the resulting CMC100 have been confirmed by physico-chemical methods (XRD, FTIR, elemental analysis) and provide provable thermodynamic stability for no less than 500 years (MRT > 500 years, F_perm = 0.95). CMC100 constitutes as a physical confirmation of sequestered carbon, verifiable by instrumental methods. 3. Net sequestration exceeds 1 t CO₂e per 1 t of composite (the calculated value is given after a conservative deduction for uncertainty); the uncertainty level is ±6%. 4. Due to its structural and chemical characteristics, the CMC100 material is legally classified in the status of a by-product (Art. 51.1, para. 2, Federal Law No. 7-FZ), and can be used for the restoration of degraded mineral soils too. 5. This creates conditions for the quantitative assessment of co-benefits within the frameworks of the EU CRCF and Puro.earth methodologies. The obtained value of 4.58 t CO₂e per 1 t of waste reflects the potential of avoided GHG-emissions under the sole baseline scenario in the form of landfill disposal (FOD model). To avoid double counting (No Double Counting), these data are not aggregated with the direct sequestration (CDR) calculation. 6. The totality of the obtained instrumental verification data constitutes the basis for qualifying the data of this project solution at a level of no less than DQS 1–2 on the PCAF v3 scale and confirms the status of CMC100 as a verifiable financial climate asset, reliably protected from greenwashing threats and regulatory surcharges to RWA (Bank of Russia Regulation No. 845-P). 7. This level of data quality ensures a reduction in the probability of event-based cancellation of the climate asset (PD) to 1–2% — compared to 20–25% for assets with Tier 1 methodological uncertainty (according to the IMF Working Paper "Pricing Climate Risk in Bank Loan Portfolios", 2023) — across all categories of financial climate assets. 8. Justification for premium pricing: the voluntary carbon credits market demonstrates a sustained trend whereby projects with proven permanence (>100 years) and high data quality (DQS 1) trade at a 50–100% premium over baseline avoided-emission projects (State of the Carbon Dioxide Removal Report 2024, CDR.fyi). Economic Benefit and Financial Risk Reduction The published results demonstrate that the transition to DQS 1-level data, despite more conservative physical sequestration volumes, creates a financially superior asset. DQS 1 status and γ_conf_agg ≥ 0.90 constitute a direct basis for the application of regulatory incentives, including a 15% reduction in risk weights (RWA) pursuant to Central Bank of Russia Instruction No. 220-I, a multiple reduction in Expected Loss, and access to premium pricing on voluntary permanent carbon dioxide removal (CDR) markets. The interdisciplinary nature of this study makes it possible, for the first time in Russian practice, to construct an end-to-end chain of evidence: from the physicochemical stability of the material through agrochemical efficacy (restoration of degraded mineral soils, co-benefits under EU CRCF and Puro.earth) to regulatory capital incentives for banks (845-P, 220-I, KST 2026). The practical significance of the study is in the substantiation of CMC100 as a new class of verifiable financial climate asset that combines physical CO₂ sequestration with persistence >500 years, the legal status of a production by-product, and a high level of data reliability through the DQS 1 mechanism. This opens up opportunities for supporting and developing solutions for the processing of organic agricultural waste through "green" lending instruments, securitization, issuance of carbon certificates (CORC200+), and the formation of reliable collateral assets with inseparable improvements (Art. 334, Civil Code of the Russian Federation). This approach ensures compliance simultaneously with the requirements of FSB KA 12, ISSA 5000 (effective from 15.12.2026), PCAF v3, and national legislation (Art. 51.1, para. 2, Federal Law No. 7-FZ; the Stockholm and Basel Conventions).

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